2026 National Championship
Claude CLI Bracket
Anthropic's flagship analysis
Window: Tournament Start
Leaderboard Rank
—
Score
0
Correct Picks
0
Predictions
63
Submission Window
Models
| Game | Round | Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm26-e-r1-g1 | 1 | Duke Blue Devils vs Siena Saints | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 97.0% | Duke owns the nation's #1 defense and #1 Barthag rating — Siena's MAAC offense (ranked #197) faces a 38-point efficiency gap. The Saints need a miracle. Duke 97% win. |
| mm26-e-r1-g2 | 1 | Ohio State Buckeyes vs TCU Horned Frogs | Ohio State Buckeyes (#8) | 62.0% | Ohio State's elite offense (AdjOE #12, 56.9% eFG) should overpower TCU's scrappy defense. The Buckeyes shoot lights-out and have the best player on the floor in Thornton. Ohio State 62% win. |
| mm26-e-r1-g3 | 1 | St. John's Red Storm vs Northern Iowa Panthers | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 79.0% | St. John's bullies its way inside with a 35.7% offensive rebound rate and elite 42.6 FTR against a Northern Iowa squad that simply hasn't faced this level of physicality. The Johnnies' top-12 defense locks down a mid-major offense ranked #151. 79% win St. John's. |
| mm26-e-r1-g4 | 1 | Kansas Jayhawks vs Cal Baptist Lancers | Kansas Jayhawks (#4) | 88.0% | Kansas's #10 defense faces a CBU team with just 1 quality game all season. Peterson and Bidunga provide firepower the Lancers haven't seen in the WAC. But KU's late-season slide (4 losses in 6) adds a wrinkle. Kansas 88% win. |
| mm26-e-r1-g5 | 1 | Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida Bulls | Louisville Cardinals (#6) | 76.0% | Louisville's elite shooting (56.6% eFG) and ACC-tested résumé should overpower USF's glass-crashing, foul-drawing style. Bulls' weak schedule (WAB: -0.84) leaves them untested at this level. Louisville 76% win. |
| mm26-e-r1-g6 | 1 | Michigan State Spartans vs North Dakota State Bison | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 87.0% | Michigan St.'s #16 defense and 38.5% offensive rebounding rate should overwhelm a North Dakota St. team with a .341 SOS. The Spartans' size and Fears Jr.'s 9.2 APG control the game. 87% win for MSU. |
| mm26-e-r1-g7 | 1 | UCLA Bruins vs UCF Knights | UCLA Bruins (#7) | 65.0% | UCLA holds a +4 edge on both ends of the floor. Bilodeau's ruthless 60.9% eFG meets UCF's porous defense, and the Bruins' turnover pressure should be decisive. UCLA 65% win. |
| mm26-e-r1-g8 | 1 | UConn Huskies vs Furman Paladins | UConn Huskies (#2) | 95.0% | UConn's elite defense (94.6 AdjDE, #11) meets a Furman offense ranked #206. The Huskies have five double-figure scorers and a 17.4-point efficiency gap. Connecticut rolls, 95% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g1 | 1 | Michigan Wolverines vs UMBC/Howard | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 100.0% | Michigan Wolverines advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g2 | 1 | Georgia Bulldogs vs Saint Louis Billikens | Georgia Bulldogs (#8) | 55.0% | Georgia's 55% win. The Bulldogs beat Auburn, Bama, and Kentucky in SEC play — SLU went 27-5 but with only 2 quality games. The Billikens shoot lights-out (59.8% eFG) but haven't faced this level of tournament pressure. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g3 | 1 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Akron Zips | Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5) | 75.0% | Texas Tech's #8 offense and #27 defense face an Akron squad that feasted on a weak MAC schedule (SOS .387 vs .760). JT Toppin's 21.8/10.8 is the matchup nightmare Akron can't answer. Red Raiders 75% win despite a late-season skid. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g4 | 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide vs Hofstra Pride | Alabama Crimson Tide (#4) | 85.0% | Alabama's #3 offense (129.5 AdjOE) meets a Hofstra squad that lost to Stony Brook, Elon, and NC A&T. The Tide's firepower is overwhelming — Philon and Holloway combine for 38 PPG on 59%+ eFG. 85% win. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g5 | 1 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Miami (OH)/SMU | Tennessee Volunteers (#6) | 100.0% | Tennessee Volunteers advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g6 | 1 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Wright State Raiders | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 89.0% | Virginia's #14-ranked defense meets a Wright State squad ranked #180 on D. The Cavaliers' elite defensive eFG% (45.5%) should suffocate the Raiders' offense. Virginia 89% win. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g7 | 1 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Santa Clara Broncos | Kentucky Wildcats (#7) | 57.0% | Kentucky's elite defense and SEC battle scars clash with Santa Clara's top-15 offense and turnover-forcing machine. Free throw rate edge and schedule strength tip the scales—but barely. Kentucky 57% win. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g8 | 1 | Iowa State Cyclones vs Tennessee State Tigers | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 95.0% | Iowa State's #6 defense and 22% turnover rate will suffocate Tennessee State's #187 offense. The Cyclones' 16-game win streak wasn't a fluke — this is a talent and efficiency mismatch across every metric. Iowa St. 95% win. |
| mm26-s-r1-g1 | 1 | Florida Gators vs Prairie View A&M/Lehigh | Florida Gators (#1) | 100.0% | Florida Gators advances |
| mm26-s-r1-g2 | 1 | Clemson Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes | Clemson Tigers (#8) | 54.0% | Clemson's elite #20 defense clamps down on Iowa's high-octane #29 offense. Seven clutch wins and ACC tourney momentum vs Iowa's 4-of-5 late-season slide tips this to the Tigers. 54% win. |
| mm26-s-r1-g3 | 1 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs McNeese Cowboys | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 79.0% | Vanderbilt's elite offense (AdjOE #11) faces its biggest test against McNeese's turnover-forcing machine (24.5% forced TO rate). But a 13-point efficiency gap and SEC battle-testing give the Commodores a 79% win chance. |
| mm26-s-r1-g4 | 1 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Troy Trojans | Nebraska Cornhuskers (#4) | 88.0% | Nebraska's #7 defense holds opponents to 47.8% eFG — a nightmare for Troy's already-mediocre 51.9% shooting. The Huskers rattled off 20 straight wins in the Big Ten gauntlet. Cornhuskers 88% win. |
| mm26-s-r1-g5 | 1 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs VCU Rams | North Carolina Tar Heels (#6) | 67.0% | UNC's elite interior duo of Wilson and Veesaar should overpower VCU's smaller frontcourt, but the Rams' turnover-forcing pressure and 8-game win streak make this a live upset. Tar Heels' 67% win prob relies on protecting the ball. |
| mm26-s-r1-g6 | 1 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn Quakers | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 90.0% | Illinois owns the #2 offense in the nation and a punishing 39% offensive rebound rate. Penn won five games by 3 or fewer points and hasn't faced anything close to this firepower. Illini roll, 90% win. |
| mm26-s-r1-g7 | 1 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Texas A&M Aggies | Saint Mary's Gaels (#7) | 62.0% | Saint Mary's elite defense (97.6 AdjDE, #22) and dominant 37.4% offensive rebounding should strangle A&M's up-tempo attack. The Gaels control pace and the glass — 62% win. |
| mm26-s-r1-g8 | 1 | Houston Cougars vs Idaho Vandals | Houston Cougars (#2) | 96.0% | Houston's #5 defense is a nightmare for Idaho's middling offense. The Cougars force turnovers at an elite 21% clip and crush the offensive glass — this 2-vs-15 gap is a canyon. Houston 96% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g1 | 1 | Arizona Wildcats vs LIU Sharks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 97.0% | Arizona's #4 defense meets a LIU offense ranked 269th in efficiency. The Wildcats' 37.7% offensive rebounding rate will bury the Sharks in second-chance points. Arizona 97% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g2 | 1 | Villanova Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Utah State Aggies (#9) | 55.0% | Utah State rides a scorching MWC tournament sweep into a coin-flip clash with Villanova. The Aggies' elite shooting (56.9% eFG) and foul-drawing ability give them the edge over Nova's stingier defense. USU 55% win prob. |
| mm26-w-r1-g3 | 1 | Wisconsin Badgers vs High Point Panthers | Wisconsin Badgers (#5) | 82.0% | Wisconsin's #7 offense meets High Point's elite turnover-forcing (22% Def TO%). But the Badgers protect the ball, and the Panthers' .278 SOS is paper-thin. Big Ten battle-testing wins this. Wisconsin 82% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g4 | 1 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 84.0% | Arkansas owns the #6 offense in America and a freshman phenom averaging 22.9 PPG & 6.5 APG. Hawaii's defense is sneaky solid, but a -4.0 WAB against a cupcake Big West schedule exposes the talent gap. Arkansas 84% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g5 | 1 | BYU Cougars vs Texas/NC State | BYU Cougars (#6) | 100.0% | BYU Cougars advances |
| mm26-w-r1-g6 | 1 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Kennesaw State Owls | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 89.0% | Gonzaga's elite defense (#9 nationally) meets a Kennesaw squad that fouls at an alarming rate and turns it over too much. The Bulldogs' 20.4% forced-TO rate could turn this into a rout. Gonzaga 89% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g7 | 1 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Missouri Tigers | Miami (FL) Hurricanes (#7) | 62.0% | Miami's elite offensive rebounding (37.1%) and turnover-forcing defense (+1.8% gap) give the Hurricanes a 62% win probability over a Missouri team that's dropped 3 of its last 5. The Canes are built for a March grind. |
| mm26-w-r1-g8 | 1 | Purdue Boilermakers vs Queens University Royals | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 95.0% | Purdue's #1-ranked offense (132.5 AdjOE) faces a Queens defense ranked #317. The Royals lost to every power-conference foe by double digits — Auburn by 41, Wake Forest by 38. Boilermakers roll, 95% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r2-g1 | 2 | Duke Blue Devils vs Ohio State Buckeyes | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 85.0% | Duke's #1 defense meets Ohio State's 12-loss inconsistency. Cameron Boozer's 22/10 double-doubles and a massive rebounding edge should smother the Buckeyes. Blue Devils roll — 85% win. |
| mm26-e-r2-g2 | 2 | St. John's Red Storm vs Kansas Jayhawks | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 57.0% | St. John's rides a 5-game win streak and Big East tourney title into a clash with a fading Kansas squad that lost 4 of its last 7. The Johnnies' turnover-forcing defense and relentless offensive rebounding overwhelm the Jayhawks. St. John's 57% win. |
| mm26-e-r2-g3 | 2 | Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 60.0% | Michigan State's monstrous 38.5% offensive rebounding rate could bury Louisville on the glass. The Spartans' elite board work and stingy D offset Louisville's shooting edge — MSU 60% win. |
| mm26-e-r2-g4 | 2 | UCLA Bruins vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 73.0% | UConn's elite defense (AdjDE #11) should suffocate UCLA's inconsistent attack. The Huskies own a massive 7-point defensive efficiency edge and crush opponents on the glass. UCLA's ball security is a lifeline, but not enough. UConn 73% win. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g1 | 2 | Michigan Wolverines vs Georgia Bulldogs | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 85.0% | Michigan's suffocating D (90.8, #2 nationally) meets Georgia's porous unit (#93). The Bulldogs can light it up offensively, but the Wolverines clamp down on everyone — 85% win for Michigan. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g2 | 2 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide | Alabama Crimson Tide (#4) | 57.0% | Alabama's #3 offense and 73-possession tempo collide with Texas Tech's #27 defense in a classic pace battle. The Tide's free-throw rate edge (37.6 vs 27.6) and ball security tip the scales. Alabama 57% win. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g3 | 2 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Cavaliers | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 56.0% | Virginia's elite shooting (55.1% eFG) meets Tennessee's bruising glass work (45% ORB). Mirror-image defenses, razor-thin margins. Virginia's efficiency edge and 29-5 record give them a 56% win probability in a coin-flip dressed as a basketball game. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g4 | 2 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 74.0% | Iowa State's suffocating defense (6th nationally) and 22% turnover rate will strangle Kentucky's guard-heavy attack. The Cyclones' 16-game win streak showed championship DNA — 74% win. |
| mm26-s-r2-g1 | 2 | Florida Gators vs Clemson Tigers | Florida Gators (#1) | 80.0% | Florida's elite defense (#3 AdjDE) and monster offensive rebounding (42.6% ORB) overwhelm a Clemson team that survived 7 games by 3 points or fewer. The Gators' frontcourt duo of Condon and Chinyelu will feast inside. 80% win for Florida. |
| mm26-s-r2-g2 | 2 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 55.0% | Vanderbilt's #11 offense collides with Nebraska's #7 defense in a classic styles clash. Vandy's rebounding edge and elite foul-drawing ability tip a razor-thin matchup. Commodores 55% win. |
| mm26-s-r2-g3 | 2 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs Illinois Fighting Illini | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 70.0% | Illinois's #2-ranked offense and 39% offensive rebounding rate overwhelm UNC's shaky late-season form. The Illini dominate the glass and control tempo for a 70% win. |
| mm26-s-r2-g4 | 2 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 77.0% | Houston's suffocating defense (#5) meets Saint Mary's gritty rebounders. The Cougars' turnover machine (21% forced TO rate) could wreck the Gaels' half-court game. Houston 77% win. |
| mm26-w-r2-g1 | 2 | Arizona Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 85.0% | Arizona's #4 defense meets Utah State's MWC offense in a mismatch. The Wildcats hold opponents to 45% eFG while crashing the glass at 37.7% ORB. Utah State's turnovers (20.6% forced) are their only lifeline. Arizona 85% win. |
| mm26-w-r2-g2 | 2 | Wisconsin Badgers vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 57.0% | Arkansas edges Wisconsin in a clash of elite offenses — the Razorbacks shoot better, rebound harder, and ride a 5-game win streak into this one. Acuff Jr.'s 22.9 PPG and 6.5 APG give Arkansas the best player on the floor. 57% win for the Hogs. |
| mm26-w-r2-g3 | 2 | BYU Cougars vs Gonzaga Bulldogs | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 72.0% | Gonzaga's elite D (46.2% def eFG%) is built to smother BYU's high-octane offense. Dybantsa can go nuclear, but the Cougars' 88th-ranked defense has no answer for Ike and Huff. Gonzaga 72% win. |
| mm26-w-r2-g4 | 2 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 76.0% | Purdue's #1 offense (132.5 AdjOE) faces Miami's board-crashing, foul-drawing attack. The Boilermakers' elite efficiency and Big Ten gauntlet give them a 76% win, but the Hurricanes' 37.1% ORB rate and 37.9 FTR could keep this closer than the seed line suggests. |
| mm26-e-r3-g1 | 3 | Duke Blue Devils vs St. John's Red Storm | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 82.0% | Duke's #1 defense meets St. John's foul-drawing attack. The Blue Devils own a massive eFG% edge (56.9 vs 50.9) and allow the fewest free throws in the country. Cameron Boozer's 22/10/4 dominance should overwhelm. Duke 82% win. |
| mm26-e-r3-g2 | 3 | Michigan State Spartans vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 61.0% | UConn's elite defense holds foes to 45.6% eFG — 61% win. But MSU's bruising 38.5% offensive rebounding could create the second-chance chaos that cracks the Huskies' shell. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g1 | 3 | Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson Tide | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 75.0% | Michigan's #2-ranked defense meets Alabama's explosive but leaky attack. The Wolverines hold opponents to 45% eFG while Bama allows 49%. Elite D plus the nation's top WAB gives Michigan a 75% win — too much balance for Philon to overcome alone. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g2 | 3 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 63.0% | Iowa State's turnover machine (22.2% forced TO%) meets Virginia's lockdown shooting D (45.5% def eFG%). Cyclones' balanced firepower and #6 defense prevail in a low-possession grinder. 63% win. |
| mm26-s-r3-g1 | 3 | Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt Commodores | Florida Gators (#1) | 62.0% | Vanderbilt just demolished Florida by 17 in the SEC tourney — but the Gators own the #3 defense in America and a massive Barthag edge. Revenge game, elite D adjusts. Florida 62% win. |
| mm26-s-r3-g2 | 3 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 57.0% | Houston's #5 defense vs Illinois's #2 offense — the ultimate style clash. Houston's 21% turnover rate could disrupt the Illini attack, but Illinois's 39% offensive rebounding gives them second-chance lifelines. Cougars grind it out. Houston 57% win. |
| mm26-w-r3-g1 | 3 | Arizona Wildcats vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 73.0% | Arizona's #4 defense (91.1 AdjDE) is a brick wall Arkansas hasn't faced. The Wildcats crush the glass (37.7% ORB) and live at the line (44.1 FTR). Acuff Jr. is electric but one man can't crack this. Arizona 73% win. |
| mm26-w-r3-g2 | 3 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 58.0% | Purdue's #1 offense meets Gonzaga's #9 defense in a clash of strength vs. shield. The Boilermakers' Big Ten gauntlet and 4-game tournament streak give them a 58% win edge, but the Zags' suffocating D makes this a coinflip-adjacent grind. |
| mm26-e-r4-g1 | 4 | Duke Blue Devils vs UConn Huskies | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 70.0% | Duke's #1-ranked defense meets a UConn squad stumbling into March with 3 losses in its last 7. Cameron Boozer's double-double machine leads the nation's top Barthag team. Duke 70% win. |
| mm26-mw-r4-g1 | 4 | Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa State Cyclones | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 72.0% | Michigan's suffocating D (90.8 AdjDE, #2) and #1 WAB meet Iowa State's turnover machine (22.2 Def TO%). Wolverines are deeper, sharper, and battle-tested — but the Cyclones' ball pressure keeps it honest. Michigan 72% win. |
| mm26-s-r4-g1 | 4 | Florida Gators vs Houston Cougars | Florida Gators (#1) | 57.0% | Florida's glass-crashing attack (42.6% ORB%) meets Houston's turnover machine (21% forced TO%). Gators' size and free-throw trips edge the Cougars in a grinding South Region battle. Florida 57% win. |
| mm26-w-r4-g1 | 4 | Arizona Wildcats vs Purdue Boilermakers | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 63.0% | Arizona's suffocating defense (4th nationally) meets the nation's top offense. The Wildcats' 44.1 FTR and 45.0 Def eFG% should tame Purdue's firepower. Arizona 63% win. |
| mm26-ff-g1 | 5 | Duke Blue Devils vs Arizona Wildcats | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 56.0% | Two 32-2 juggernauts collide. Duke's #1 defense wants to grind; Arizona pushes 70 possessions. Cameron Boozer is the best player on the floor. Duke 56% win — elite defense edges elite depth in a rock fight. |
| mm26-ff-g2 | 5 | Florida Gators vs Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 63.0% | Michigan's 58% eFG and #2 Barthag overpower Florida's glass-crashing attack. The Wolverines' elite shooting efficiency and 31-3 résumé are too much — 63% win for Michigan. |
| mm26-championship | 6 | Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan Wolverines | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 56.0% | Duke edges Michigan in a clash of college basketball's two best teams. The Blue Devils already own a head-to-head win, crash the boards harder, and force more turnovers — their suffocating defense gives them a 56% win probability in a razor-thin matchup. |