2026 National Championship
DeepSeek V3.1 Bracket
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Window: Tournament Start
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Predictions
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| Game | Round | Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm26-e-r1-g1 | 1 | Duke Blue Devils vs Siena Saints | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 99.0% | Heavyweight vs. Cinderella. Duke (32-2) boasts the nation's #1 defense & a 5-star freshman Boozer. Siena (23-11) must pull off a miracle. The Blue Devils are dominant, projected with a 99% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r1-g2 | 1 | Ohio State Buckeyes vs TCU Horned Frogs | TCU Horned Frogs (#9) | 63.0% | Ohio St. boasts a top-12 offense but is vulnerable to stout defense. TCU has a top-30 D & tougher Elite SOS. The Horned Frogs' defense, battle-tested in the brutal B12, will slow down Bruce Thornton & Co. 63% win for TCU in a rock fight. |
| mm26-e-r1-g3 | 1 | St. John's Red Storm vs Northern Iowa Panthers | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 80.0% | Buckle up! The 5-seed Red Storm are a force, ranking 12th in defense and armed with a high-octane (119.4 AdjOE) attack led by Zuby Ejiofor. Their schedule was brutal (SOS 0.723) and they enter on a 9-game tear. The 12-seed Panthers' stingy defense (#26 AdjDE) can frustrate, but their schedule was soft (0.509 SOS). Upset talk is fun, but expect St. John's to control from the tip. 80% win. |
| mm26-e-r1-g4 | 1 | Kansas Jayhawks vs Cal Baptist Lancers | Kansas Jayhawks (#4) | 92.0% | Kansas's elite defense (#10 AdjDE) clashes with Cal Baptist's high-volume scorer Dominique Daniels Jr. (23.2 PPG). The Jayhawks' brutal schedule has them battle-tested for March, while the Lancers' weak SOS raises major questions. Kansas has a 92% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r1-g5 | 1 | Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida Bulls | Louisville Cardinals (#6) | 78.0% | Louisville's formidable defense (#24 AdjDE), tested by a top-25 schedule, clashes with a streaky South Florida team whose efficiency (AdjOE #65) pales against elite competition. The Bulls rode an 11-game streak, but Louisville’s proven ability in high-quality games gives them a commanding 78% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r1-g6 | 1 | Michigan State Spartans vs North Dakota State Bison | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 87.0% | Michigan State's elite defense (#16 AdjDE) and high-major schedule (SOS 0.747) clash with North Dakota St.'s Cinderella dream. The Bison's poor defense (#120) and weak schedule (SOS 0.341) spell trouble. Spartans win 87% of the time. |
| mm26-e-r1-g7 | 1 | UCLA Bruins vs UCF Knights | UCLA Bruins (#7) | 72.0% | UCLA's elite #17 offense clashes with UCF's porous #112 defense. Bruins have a tougher schedule (SOS: 0.706) and more quality wins, including a victory over Purdue. Expect UCLA's discipline and superior efficiency to overpower UCF's high-tempo attack. 72% win. |
| mm26-e-r1-g8 | 1 | UConn Huskies vs Furman Paladins | UConn Huskies (#2) | 92.0% | UConn is the juggernaut, battle-tested in the gauntlet of the Big East with a top-20 offense & top-11 defense. Furman boasts a high-usage freshman but a porous defense & one of the nation's softest schedules. UConn should roll. UConn 92% win. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g1 | 1 | Michigan Wolverines vs UMBC/Howard | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 100.0% | Michigan Wolverines advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g2 | 1 | Georgia Bulldogs vs Saint Louis Billikens | Georgia Bulldogs (#8) | 58.0% | Georgia's high-octane offense (AdjOE #18) meets Saint Louis's stingy defense (AdjDE #59). The Dawgs play in the gauntlet of the SEC, while the Billikens feasted on a soft A10. Saint Louis is steadier, but Georgia's firepower is tournament-tested. 58% win for Georgia. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g3 | 1 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Akron Zips | Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5) | 88.0% | Don't be fooled by the gaudy record. Akron's historic 27-5 season came against the #351st SOS. Texas Tech's top-10 offense, battle-tested in the brutal Big 12, should overwhelm the Zips. Red Raiders win 88% of the time. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g4 | 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide vs Hofstra Pride | Alabama Crimson Tide (#4) | 90.0% | Alabama boasts the nation’s #3 offense. Hofstra’s defense and weak schedule (rank #96) can’t handle the Tide’s high-octane pace. This is a mismatch of elite efficiency vs. average. Alabama wins with 90% confidence. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g5 | 1 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Miami (OH)/SMU | Tennessee Volunteers (#6) | 100.0% | Tennessee Volunteers advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g6 | 1 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Wright State Raiders | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 95.0% | Virginia's elite defense (#14 AdjDE) meets Wright St.'s porous D (#180 AdjDE). The Cavaliers' stifling system and superior talent should overwhelm the Raiders. Virginia has a 95% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g7 | 1 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Santa Clara Broncos | Kentucky Wildcats (#7) | 68.0% | Kentucky (7) vs Santa Clara (10) features elite O vs sturdy D. The Wildcats' defense (#32) is the best the Broncos' high-powered offense (#15) has faced. Santa Clara's suspect D (#76) will struggle with Otega Oweh's usage. Wildcats should control, ~68% win. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g8 | 1 | Iowa State Cyclones vs Tennessee State Tigers | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 98.0% | David vs. Goliath: Elite defense meets questionable offense. Iowa State ranks 6th in AdjDE, Tennessee State 187th in AdjOE and played just 1 quality game. Expect a Cyclones blowout. Iowa State: 98% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r1-g1 | 1 | Florida Gators vs Prairie View A&M/Lehigh | Florida Gators (#1) | 100.0% | Florida Gators advances |
| mm26-s-r1-g2 | 1 | Clemson Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes | Clemson Tigers (#8) | 65.0% | Clemson's elite defense (#20 AdjDE) clashes with Iowa's potent offense (#29 AdjOE) led by 20-ppg scorer Bennett Stirtz. The Tigers' experience in nail-biters (7 close wins) gives them the edge in a tense, low-possession rock fight. 65% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r1-g3 | 1 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs McNeese Cowboys | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 86.0% | Vanderbilt rides a top-15 offense into a stark mismatch. The 'Dores are elite (AdjOE #11), battle-tested (SOS 0.723), and on a 16-game streak. This 5-12 looks like chalk, but McNeese's poor SOS (0.425) is a red flag. 86% win Vanderbilt. |
| mm26-s-r1-g4 | 1 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Troy Trojans | Nebraska Cornhuskers (#4) | 85.0% | Nebraska's elite defense (#7 nationally, AdjDE: 93.4) should suffocate Troy, whose underwhelming offense (AdjOE: #136) faced a weak schedule. Huskers' controlled tempo & superior efficiency project a comfortable win with 85% confidence. |
| mm26-s-r1-g5 | 1 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs VCU Rams | North Carolina Tar Heels (#6) | 72.0% | North Carolina's balanced efficiency & brutal ACC schedule make them heavy favorites. VCU's porous defense (AdjDE #85) is a major red flag against a versatile offense. The Heels have proven they can win close, surviving 5 nail-biters. UNC wins 72% of the time. |
| mm26-s-r1-g6 | 1 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn Quakers | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 97.0% | Illinois' elite #2 offense meets Penn's #209 defense. The Illini have a 97% win probability. A 12-game win streak and top-tier schedule proves they are built for March, while Penn's weak efficiency ratings spell a first-round exit. |
| mm26-s-r1-g7 | 1 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Texas A&M Aggies | Saint Mary's Gaels (#7) | 68.0% | Saint Mary's (26-5) relies on one of the nation's stingiest defenses (AdjDE #22) and a methodical pace to suffocate opponents. They face a talented but erratic Texas A&M squad that scores in bunches but struggles for consistency. Expect the Gaels' control to prevail: Saint Mary's 68% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r1-g8 | 1 | Houston Cougars vs Idaho Vandals | Houston Cougars (#2) | 98.0% | Houston brings its Top-5 defense against Idaho's Cinderella story. The Cougars' elite pressure (#5 AdjDE) clashes with a Vandals squad that survived five single-possession wins. Houston's strength of schedule (0.724 SOS) is a massive edge over Idaho's (0.426). Expect a dominant, methodical win for Houston. 98% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r1-g1 | 1 | Arizona Wildcats vs LIU Sharks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 99.5% | A dominant Arizona (32-2) faces overmatched NEC champ LIU in a colossal mismatch. The West's #1 seed boasts elite top-5 defense against the 269th-ranked O. Win probability >99%. Expect a blowout. |
| mm26-w-r1-g2 | 1 | Villanova Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Villanova Wildcats (#8) | 55.0% | High-floor Villanova (#37 AdjDE) aims to slow down Utah State's potent offense (#27 AdjOE). Both teams are evenly matched per advanced metrics, but Nova's defense and tougher Big East schedule give them the narrow edge (55% win). |
| mm26-w-r1-g3 | 1 | Wisconsin Badgers vs High Point Panthers | Wisconsin Badgers (#5) | 84.0% | Wisconsin's elite offense (#7 AdjOE) clashes with High Point's Cinderella story. The Badgers' brutal B10 schedule has them battle-tested for tight games, while the Panthers' weak defense (#148 AdjDE) is a major red flag. Wisconsin wins this 84% of the time. |
| mm26-w-r1-g4 | 1 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 85.0% | Arkansas's elite offense (#6 AdjOE) meets Hawaii's stingy defense (#52 AdjDE). The Razorbacks' high-powered attack, led by freshman phenom Darius Acuff Jr. (22.9 PPG), is too much for a Hawaii team that struggled against elite competition. Arkansas wins 85% of the time. |
| mm26-w-r1-g5 | 1 | BYU Cougars vs Texas/NC State | BYU Cougars (#6) | 100.0% | BYU Cougars advances |
| mm26-w-r1-g6 | 1 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Kennesaw State Owls | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 95.0% | Gonzaga brings a dominant defense (#9 nationally) and a 30-3 record against a Kennesaw State team that struggled vs. top foes and has a sub-.500 efficiency mark. The Bulldogs' elite interior play and battle-tested resume make them heavy favorites. Gonzaga wins with ~95% probability. |
| mm26-w-r1-g7 | 1 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Missouri Tigers | Miami (FL) Hurricanes (#7) | 72.0% | Miami's efficient, battle-tested offense and superior defense (AdjDE #45 vs #68) should overwhelm Missouri. The Canes' experienced trio of Donaldson, Henderson & Reneau is too much for Mizzou's shaky perimeter D. Miami wins 72% of the time. |
| mm26-w-r1-g8 | 1 | Purdue Boilermakers vs Queens University Royals | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 97.0% | Purdue (#1 offense) faces a Queens defense ranked #317 nationally. The Boilermakers' elite interior efficiency meets a soft perimeter. A 97% blowout win predicted, but Queens' high-tempo shootout dream exists. |
| mm26-e-r2-g1 | 2 | Duke Blue Devils vs TCU Horned Frogs | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 92.0% | Elite #1 defense meets middle-of-the-pack offense. Duke's suffocating unit (AdjDE #1) allows just 90.4 pp100 while Boozer patrols the paint. TCU's #82 offense will struggle. Duke has 92% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r2-g2 | 2 | St. John's Red Storm vs Kansas Jayhawks | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 55.0% | St. John's (28-6) rides a 12-game heater but faces a Kansas (23-10) defense ranked #10. The Red Storm's superior shooting & recent domination of top teams gives them a slight edge. Prediction: St. John's wins a 55% battle. |
| mm26-e-r2-g3 | 2 | Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 68.0% | Battle of elite efficiency vs elite defense. Louisville's high-powered offense (#23 AdjOE) meets Michigan State's stingy D (#16 AdjDE). Spartans' tougher schedule and superior ball control gives them the edge. MSU wins 68% of the time. |
| mm26-e-r2-g4 | 2 | UCLA Bruins vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 72.0% | UConn's elite defense (AdjDE #11) meets UCLA's potent offense (AdjOE #17). The Bruins have giant-killer wins but road woes. Huskies' poise and championship pedigree give them a 68% win probability in a tight East Region battle. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g1 | 2 | Michigan Wolverines vs Georgia Bulldogs | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 90.0% | Can Georgia's high-powered but leaky defense handle Michigan's elite two-way machine? The Wolverines (31-3) boast the #2 defense nationally & a #4 offense, making them a heavy favorite with a 90% chance to advance over the offensively solid but defensively challenged Bulldogs (22-10). |
| mm26-mw-r2-g2 | 2 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide | Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5) | 61.0% | Elite offense vs elite offense, but Texas Tech's defensive edge gives them a huge advantage. The Tide struggles (#67 adjusted defense) to get enough stops against the Red Raiders' top-10 attack. Bet on Tech's balance in a probable shootout. 61% win. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g3 | 2 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Cavaliers | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 58.0% | A dead-even efficiency ratings clash. Virginia's #14 defense and elite 29-5 record meet Tennessee's #13 defense and rugged SEC schedule. Virginia's composure in close games (3-0 in <3pt wins) and superior Barthag rating (0.9557) give them a slight 58% edge in a rock fight. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g4 | 2 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 78.0% | Kentucky's explosive offense (120.0 AdjOE) meets an Iowa St. brick wall (92.6 AdjDE, #6). The Cyclones' stifling defense, proven against a brutal B12 slate, will be the difference, giving them a 78% chance to advance. |
| mm26-s-r2-g1 | 2 | Florida Gators vs Clemson Tigers | Florida Gators (#1) | 78.0% | Florida's elite defense (#3 AdjDE) clashes with Clemson's grind-it-out pace. The Gators' high-powered offense and superior talent should overwhelm the Tigers, but Clemson has a penchant for close games. Florida has a 78% chance to advance. |
| mm26-s-r2-g2 | 2 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 63.0% | A classic offense vs. defense battle. Vanderbilt's explosive attack (#11 AdjOE, averaged 99 PPG during a 16-game win streak) clashes with Nebraska's stingy defense (#7 AdjDE). The Commodores' superior offensive firepower proves the difference-maker in a track meet. Vanderbilt wins with 63% probability. |
| mm26-s-r2-g3 | 2 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs Illinois Fighting Illini | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 72.0% | Elite offense (AdjOE #2) vs. balanced efficiency. Illinois' potent attack and strong Big Ten résumé give them the edge over a UNC team that's been shaky on the road. 72% win probability for the Illini in a clash of styles. |
| mm26-s-r2-g4 | 2 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 78.0% | Houston's elite defense (AdjDE #5) meets Saint Mary's steady system. The Cougars' tougher schedule trumps the Gaels' WCC record, making Houston a 78% favorite. The South's 2-seed advances on its stifling defensive pressure. |
| mm26-w-r2-g1 | 2 | Arizona Wildcats vs Villanova Wildcats | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 88.0% | Arizona's elite defense (AdjDE #4) meets a sturdy but overmatched Villanova. The 1-seed's 35.2-point efficiency gap is a chasm. Expect Nova to slow it, but Arizona's road wins at UConn, Houston, and Baylor show they can grind too. >85% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r2-g2 | 2 | Wisconsin Badgers vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 65.0% | Arkansas (AdjOE #6) vs Wisconsin (AdjOE #7) is the premier offense-on-offense matchup of the West. The Razorbacks' slightly better SOS and lower tendency for close wins gives them a narrow 65% edge. Expect a high-scoring thriller. |
| mm26-w-r2-g3 | 2 | BYU Cougars vs Gonzaga Bulldogs | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 68.0% | Elite Offense vs. Elite Defense. BYU's high-flying attack (#16 AdjOE) meets Gonzaga's stifling D (#9 AdjDE). The Zags' tougher Elite SOS and record in quality games gives them the edge. Gonzaga 68% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r2-g4 | 2 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 85.0% | Purdue's historic #1 offense (132.5 AdjOE) clashes with Miami's fast-paced attack. But the Boilermakers are far more battle-tested against elite competition. Purdue's efficiency and experience will overpower the Canes. 85% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r3-g1 | 3 | Duke Blue Devils vs St. John's Red Storm | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 90.0% | Duke's historic #1 defense (AdjDE 90.4) clashes with St. John's stingy #12 unit. The Blue Devils are battle-tested with 20 quality wins and a 32-2 record, making them heavy favorites. Duke has a 90% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r3-g2 | 3 | Michigan State Spartans vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 68.0% | Elite defenses clash in the East as UConn's incredible efficiency (#11 AdjDE) and battle-tested resume (29-5) faces a tough MSU. Huskies' superior WAB (9.011) and fewer close calls give them the 68% win probability edge. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g1 | 3 | Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 78.0% | The immovable object meets the resistible force. #1 Michigan's elite defense (AdjDE #2) clashes with Texas Tech's potent offense (AdjOE #8) led by Christian Anderson. Will the Wolverines' relentless consistency and battle-tested profile hold off the Red Raiders' explosive potential? Michigan holds a 78% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g2 | 3 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 68.0% | Two elite defenses clash, but Iowa St.’s (#6 AdjDE) slightly better unit and more balanced top-end offense (Arizona x2) gets the edge. Virginia’s offense has struggled vs elite teams. Cyclones 68% win. |
| mm26-s-r3-g1 | 3 | Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt Commodores | Florida Gators (#1) | 55.0% | SEC rivals collide! Florida's elite #3 defense meets Vanderbilt's explosive #11 offense. They split the season series, but Vandy just won the SEC Tourney matchup 91-74. This is a toss-up. 55% win probability for Florida. |
| mm26-s-r3-g2 | 3 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 68.0% | A classic offense vs. defense showdown. #2 AdjOE Illinois (131.9) clashes with #5 AdjDE Houston (91.8). The Cougars' stifling defense and superior late 68% of the time. |
| mm26-w-r3-g1 | 3 | Arizona Wildcats vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 75.0% | Elite offense meets elite defense. Arizona's top-4 defense (AdjDE 91.1) looks to contain Arkansas's high-powered, 6th-ranked offense (AdjOE 127.8). The Wildcats' stifling D and superior efficiency in quality games gives them a 75% chance to advance. |
| mm26-w-r3-g2 | 3 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 62.0% | Purdue's historic #1 offense (132.5 AdjOE) clashes with Gonzaga's elite #9 defense (93.9 AdjDE). The Boilermakers faced a gauntlet (0.770 SOS) and are battle-tested, while the Zags' three losses were all blowouts or to weaker teams. Purdue's 62% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r4-g1 | 4 | Duke Blue Devils vs UConn Huskies | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 78.0% | Duke's elite #1 defense meets UConn's balanced attack. The Blue Devils' suffocating D and star power of Boozer gives them a decisive edge. Duke has a 78% win probability in this heavyweight East Region clash. |
| mm26-mw-r4-g1 | 4 | Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa State Cyclones | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 78.0% | Elite offense vs elite defense. Michigan (31-3) boasts a top-4 attack and the #2 defense, battle-tested by the nation's toughest schedule. Iowa St's defense is stout, but the Cyclones' weaker non-conference slate and road struggles loom large. Michigan has a 78% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r4-g1 | 4 | Florida Gators vs Houston Cougars | Florida Gators (#1) | 68.0% | Elite defense vs elite defense. Florida's #3 AdjDE meets Houston's #5 AdjDE. Florida plays faster (70.7 tempo) & has a slight offensive edge (AdjOE #10 vs #14). Houston has a marginally better WAB (9.035). Gators' physicality wins a rock fight. Florida 68% win. |
| mm26-w-r4-g1 | 4 | Arizona Wildcats vs Purdue Boilermakers | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 65.0% | Arizona's elite defense (#4 AdjDE) clashes with Purdue's historic offense (#1 AdjOE). The Wildcats' stifling D and superior consistency give them the edge in a heavyweight battle. Arizona has a 65% chance to advance. |
| mm26-ff-g1 | 5 | Duke Blue Devils vs Arizona Wildcats | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 65.0% | Elite defense meets elite offense. #1 AdjDE Duke (32-2) vs #9 AdjOE Arizona (32-2) in a clash of titans. Duke's stifling D gives them a 65% edge to grind out a low-possession war. Expect a rock fight decided in the final minutes. |
| mm26-ff-g2 | 5 | Florida Gators vs Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 68.0% | Elite defense vs elite offense. Michigan's #4 AdjOE and #2 AdjDE, combined with a tougher schedule (SOS: 0.795) and more consistent play, gives them a 68% win probability over a Florida team that stumbled late. |
| mm26-championship | 6 | Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 52.0% | Elite defense meets elite offense in a clash of titans. Michigan's #1 WAB & tougher schedule (SOS: 0.795) gives them a razor-thin edge over Duke's #1 defense. A virtual coin flip, but the Wolverines' battle-tested resume earns a 52% win probability. |