2026 National Championship

DeepSeek V3.2 Bracket

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Window: Tournament Start

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GameRoundMatchupPickConfidenceRationale
mm26-e-r1-g11Duke Blue Devils vs Siena SaintsDuke Blue Devils (#1)99.0%Blue Devils in a route. The No. 1-ranked defense (AdjDE: 90.4) meets the 197th-ranked offense in a massive mismatch. Duke's elite rebounding and shooting should overwhelm the Saints from the tip. >95% win probability.
mm26-e-r1-g21Ohio State Buckeyes vs TCU Horned FrogsOhio State Buckeyes (#8)68.0%This 8-9 clash pits Ohio State's elite offense (#12 AdjOE) against TCU's stingy defense (#30 AdjDE). The Buckeyes' high-powered attack, led by Bruce Thornton (63% eFG), is the difference-maker in a classic contrast of styles. Ohio State has a 68% win probability.
mm26-e-r1-g31St. John's Red Storm vs Northern Iowa PanthersSt. John's Red Storm (#5)78.0%St. John's rides elite defense and powerhouse conference run, but Northern Iowa's stout defense (#26 AdjDE) could slow the tempo and squeeze margins. Panthers need perfect shooting to overcome massive SOS gap. St. John's wins 78%.
mm26-e-r1-g41Kansas Jayhawks vs Cal Baptist LancersKansas Jayhawks (#4)85.0%Kansas' #10 defense meets Cal Baptist's sketchy offense (AdjOE #186). Dominique Daniels Jr. (23.2 PPG) must play hero, but KU's Flory Bidunga & Tre White should dominate inside. Likely a Jayhawk cruise. Kansas win probability: 85%.
mm26-e-r1-g51Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida BullsLouisville Cardinals (#6)70.0%Louisville's elite shooting (#23 AdjOE) meets South Florida's interior grit (#65 AdjDE). Louisville holds advantages in efficiency & schedule; South Florida's rebounding and foul-drawing are wild cards. Louisville's 70% chance to win.
mm26-e-r1-g61Michigan State Spartans vs North Dakota State BisonMichigan State Spartans (#3)92.0%Michigan St. enters as a national powerhouse (#11 per Barthag) with a top-16 defense, battle-tested vs the nation's best. North Dakota St. lacks a signature win & is vulnerable on both ends. Spartans roll in a talent & physicality mismatch. 92% win.
mm26-e-r1-g71UCLA Bruins vs UCF KnightsUCLA Bruins (#7)67.0%UCLA's superior efficiency & defense clashes with UCF's high-paced attack. The Bruins' #17 offense & #49 defense are more balanced vs. Knights' leaky #112 D. Bruins should control tempo & win 67% of the time.
mm26-e-r1-g81UConn Huskies vs Furman PaladinsUConn Huskies (#2)99.0%Elite defense and high-level coaching meet a Cinderella story. UConn's #11 AdjDE, brutal SOS, and efficient interior play give them a massive edge over a streaky, poor-defending Furman. Huskies are 99% likely to roll.
mm26-mw-r1-g11Michigan Wolverines vs UMBC/HowardMichigan Wolverines (#1)100.0%Michigan Wolverines advances
mm26-mw-r1-g21Georgia Bulldogs vs Saint Louis BillikensGeorgia Bulldogs (#8)61.0%Georgia's explosive offense (#18 AdjOE) faces Saint Louis's stifling shooting defense (#1 eFG% defense?). The Bulldogs allow buckets (AdjDE #93), but they've played a brutal SEC slate. Can the Billikens survive the power-conference punch? Georgia favored 61%.
mm26-mw-r1-g31Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Akron ZipsTexas Tech Red Raiders (#5)81.0%Texas Tech's elite offense (#8 AdjOE) clashes with Akron's efficient shooting (58.6% eFG). The Red Raiders are battle-tested in the brutal Big 12, while the Zips feasted on a soft schedule. Texas Tech wins 81% of the time. High-scoring affair expected.
mm26-mw-r1-g41Alabama Crimson Tide vs Hofstra PrideAlabama Crimson Tide (#4)87.0%Alabama's #3-ranked offense is a high-tempo hurricane (129.5 AdjOE). Hofstra's 99th-rated defense has seen nothing like it. Crimson Tide put up 100+ nine times; Pride's Elite SOS is 0.888. The pace alone breaks the 13-seed. Alabama 87% win.
mm26-mw-r1-g51Tennessee Volunteers vs Miami (OH)/SMUTennessee Volunteers (#6)100.0%Tennessee Volunteers advances
mm26-mw-r1-g61Virginia Cavaliers vs Wright State RaidersVirginia Cavaliers (#3)95.0%Virginia (29-5) has elite defense (#14) and battled a tough ACC schedule. Wright St. (21-11) faces a massive SOS gap. Virginia's dominant efficiency spells a 95% win probability.
mm26-mw-r1-g71Kentucky Wildcats vs Santa Clara BroncosKentucky Wildcats (#7)61.0%Kentucky (21-13) vs Santa Clara (25-8). Santa Clara has a top-15 offense, but their #76 defense faces a stiff SEC test. Kentucky's better defense and far tougher schedule give them a 61% win edge. Expect a fast-paced, physical battle.
mm26-mw-r1-g81Iowa State Cyclones vs Tennessee State TigersIowa State Cyclones (#2)97.0%Iowa St. brings elite defense (#6 AdjDE) and a high-powered offense into a mismatch with Tennessee St., a team with porous defense and a poor SOS. The Cyclones' turnover-forcing machine (22.2% Def TO%) should dismantle the Tigers. Win probability: 97%.
mm26-s-r1-g11Florida Gators vs Prairie View A&M/LehighFlorida Gators (#1)100.0%Florida Gators advances
mm26-s-r1-g21Clemson Tigers vs Iowa HawkeyesClemson Tigers (#8)72.0%The Clemson Tigers (8-seed, South) face the Iowa Hawkeyes (9-seed) in a clash of contrasting strengths. Clemson boasts a superior defense (#20 AdjDE) and schedule toughness, while Iowa's offense is more potent (#29 AdjOE). Clemson holds a 72% win probability based on their efficiency against quality opponents.
mm26-s-r1-g31Vanderbilt Commodores vs McNeese CowboysVanderbilt Commodores (#5)76.0%Vanderbilt's elite offense (#11 AdjOE) faces a surprising defensive test from McNeese St. (#56 AdjDE), which leads the nation in forcing turnovers. Can the 5-seed handle the pressure? Vandy is a 76% favorite, but the Cowboys' TO creation makes this a live '12-5' upset watch.
mm26-s-r1-g41Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Troy TrojansNebraska Cornhuskers (#4)88.0%Nebraska brings elite defense (AdjDE #7) & high-level battle-testedness (SOS 0.695) against Troy’s weak defense (#182) & a schedule littered with high-scoring close calls. The Huskers are 88% likely to grind out a methodical win.
mm26-s-r1-g51North Carolina Tar Heels vs VCU RamsNorth Carolina Tar Heels (#6)82.0%North Carolina's elite dual efficiency (AdjO/AdjD both #33) & loaded frontcourt of Wilson & Veesaar should overpower VCU's suspect defense (#85). Rams need a turnover barrage & hot shooting to keep up. Tar Heels 82% win.
mm26-s-r1-g61Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn QuakersIllinois Fighting Illini (#3)85.0%Illinois (#2 offense, #23 defense) vs Penn (#209 offense). The Illini are elite, but can their defense hold up against TJ Power and Ethan Roberts? Illini have the firepower to overwhelm Penn's shaky D—Illinois 85% win.
mm26-s-r1-g71Saint Mary's Gaels vs Texas A&M AggiesSaint Mary's Gaels (#7)73.0%Saint Mary's elite D (AdjDE #22) vs Texas A&M's high-risk, high-tempo O. Gaels' smothering defense and offensive rebounding should control pace, but Aggies' offense can explode if they win the turnover battle. SMC has 73% win probability.
mm26-s-r1-g81Houston Cougars vs Idaho VandalsHouston Cougars (#2)98.0%Houston, one of the nation's elite defenses (AdjDE #5), faces a 15-seed in Idaho that is a massive underdog. The Cougars' defensive pressure creates chaos (21.0% opponent TO rate), overwhelming opponents. Idaho's defense (#123) cannot contain Houston's multi-faceted attack. Houston has a 98% win probability.
mm26-w-r1-g11Arizona Wildcats vs LIU SharksArizona Wildcats (#1)99.0%Arizona's historic season (32-2) meets LIU's Cinderella dream. The Wildcats are a powerhouse (#3 power rating, #4 defense) vs a team ranked outside the top 200 on both ends. This is a 1-vs-16 mismatch. 99% win.
mm26-w-r1-g21Villanova Wildcats vs Utah State AggiesVillanova Wildcats (#8)61.0%Villanova vs. Utah State is a clash of styles: Nova’s balanced, stout defense (AdjDE #37) meets Utah State’s elite shooting (56.9% eFG). The Aggies' offense has the higher ceiling, but Villanova's tougher Big East schedule and defensive discipline provide a 61% win edge. High-stakes for bracket pickers.
mm26-w-r1-g31Wisconsin Badgers vs High Point PanthersWisconsin Badgers (#5)84.0%Wisconsin's elite offense (#7 AdjOE) faces High Point's shaky defense (#148 AdjDE). Panthers' high forced TO% is intriguing, but Badgers' experience & schedule strength are overwhelming. Wisconsin 84% win.
mm26-w-r1-g41Arkansas Razorbacks vs Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsArkansas Razorbacks (#4)89.0%Hawaii's elite defense (#52 AdjDE) gets its toughest test vs. Arkansas' explosive offense (#6 AdjOE). The Razorbacks' superior athletes & much tougher schedule prove too much. Arkansas wins with 89% probability.
mm26-w-r1-g51BYU Cougars vs Texas/NC StateBYU Cougars (#6)100.0%BYU Cougars advances
mm26-w-r1-g61Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Kennesaw State OwlsGonzaga Bulldogs (#3)96.0%Gonzaga boasts a top-10 defense and a deep, efficient offense. Their size, experience, and battle-tested schedule are overwhelming advantages vs a 14-seed whose defense struggles against elite competition. Bulldogs have a 96% win probability.
mm26-w-r1-g71Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Missouri TigersMiami (FL) Hurricanes (#7)72.0%Miami (FL) holds a significant edge in efficiency, ranking 35th overall to Missouri's 46th, and owns a massive 24-2 edge in non-close wins. Their superior defense (AdjDE 45 vs. 68) and elite offensive rebounding power meet a Missouri squad with a leakier defense and shaky record in quality games. 72% win probability for the Hurricanes.
mm26-w-r1-g81Purdue Boilermakers vs Queens University RoyalsPurdue Boilermakers (#2)99.0%A classic David vs Goliath: Purdue's #1 offense (AdjOE 132.5) collides with Queens' porous defense (#317). Boilermakers feast inside with elite efficiency. Royals can only hope for a miracle. >98% win probability for Purdue.
mm26-e-r2-g12Duke Blue Devils vs Ohio State BuckeyesDuke Blue Devils (#1)86.0%The #1 overall Duke defense (AdjDE 90.4) smothers Ohio St.'s efficient attack. Duke has elite depth, star power in Boozer, and a #1 Barthag rating. Ohio St.'s shaky defense (#46 AdjDE) won't hold. 86% win for Duke.
mm26-e-r2-g22St. John's Red Storm vs Kansas JayhawksSt. John's Red Storm (#5)65.0%St. John's owns a superior efficiency profile (AdjDE #12, Barthag #17) with elite defense and rebounding. Kansas boasts a tougher schedule but is turnover-prone and has 10 losses. The Red Storm's defensive pressure and relentless attack on the rim gives them a 65% win probability.
mm26-e-r2-g32Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans (#3)68.0%Michigan State's elite defense (#16 AdjDE) and dominant glass (38.5% ORB) clash with Louisville's high-octane offense (#23 AdjOE) in a classic clash of styles. The Spartans' superior rebounding and schedule edge give them a 68% win probability.
mm26-e-r2-g42UCLA Bruins vs UConn HuskiesUConn Huskies (#2)75.0%UConn's stifling #11 defense faces UCLA's high-octane #17 offense. Huskies dominate the glass & interior. Bruins' 18-game win streak breaker looks dangerous but lacks elite D. 75% win.
mm26-mw-r2-g12Michigan Wolverines vs Georgia BulldogsMichigan Wolverines (#1)88.0%Michigan (Barthag #2) is a juggernaut on both ends, while Georgia (#93 defense) cannot stop elite teams. The Wolverines' massive inside edge and championship-level efficiency gives them an 88% win probability.
mm26-mw-r2-g22Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson TideTexas Tech Red Raiders (#5)61.0%Texas Tech (8th O, 27th D) vs Alabama (3rd O, 67th D). Classic offense vs defense. Bama scores at will but allows points. Texas Tech's defense is far superior. 61% win probability for the disciplined, defensive-minded squad.
mm26-mw-r2-g32Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia CavaliersVirginia Cavaliers (#3)57.0%A rock fight of elite defenses — both top-14 in AdjDE. Virginia (121.7 AdjOE) shoots much better (55.1 eFG%) but Tennessee (121.5 AdjOE) cleans the glass (45% ORB). Virginia’s superior efficiency vs a better schedule gives them the slight edge. 57% win probability for the Cavaliers.
mm26-mw-r2-g42Kentucky Wildcats vs Iowa State CyclonesIowa State Cyclones (#2)79.0%Kentucky's offense can heat up, but Iowa State's elite defense (#6 AdjDE) forces turnovers at an insane rate (22.2% Def TO%). The Cyclones are just too consistent and battle-tested. Iowa St. has a 79% win probability.
mm26-s-r2-g12Florida Gators vs Clemson TigersFlorida Gators (#1)92.0%The (1) Gators' elite defense (#3 AdjDE) smothers opponents & dominates the glass (42.6% ORB). They play fast (70.7 tempo) vs Clemson's slow pace. Clemson must win a rock fight. Florida has a 92% win probability.
mm26-s-r2-g22Vanderbilt Commodores vs Nebraska CornhuskersVanderbilt Commodores (#5)55.0%Clash of styles! #7 defense Nebraska (26-6) vs #11 offense Vandy (26-8). Vandy's elite 126 AdjOE meets Huskers' lockdown 93.4 AdjDE. Huskers' defensive discipline in slower tempo clashes with Vandy's efficient attack. Vandy's slightly superior power rating and SOS gives them a 55% win probability edge.
mm26-s-r2-g32North Carolina Tar Heels vs Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois Fighting Illini (#3)67.0%Elite offense vs balanced efficiency. Illinois boasts the nation's 2nd-ranked offense but faces a Carolina team that's equally efficient on both ends (both rank #33). The Illini's staggering offensive rebounding and slightly superior schedule give them the edge. Illinois holds a 67% win probability.
mm26-s-r2-g42Saint Mary's Gaels vs Houston CougarsHouston Cougars (#2)76.0%Houston's elite defense (#5 AdjDE) and higher-rated offense (#14 AdjOE) clash with Saint Mary's steady control & rebounding. Houston plays the 'quality games' (16 vs 6) and tougher schedule. Cougars win with pressure. Probability: 76% win.
mm26-w-r2-g12Arizona Wildcats vs Villanova WildcatsArizona Wildcats (#1)85.0%Arizona (32-2, #3 Barthag) is a juggernaut. Villanova (24-8, #36 Barthag) faces a massive efficiency gap on both ends. Wildcats vs. Wildcats? Arizona has the elite defense & high-powered offense. 85% win.
mm26-w-r2-g22Wisconsin Badgers vs Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks (#4)67.0%Electric offense vs elite offense. Wisconsin's #7 AdjOE clashes with Arkansas's #6 AdjOE. Arkansas has superior rebounding and turnover forcing, but Wisconsin's 5 close wins show grit. Arkansas 67% win.
mm26-w-r2-g32BYU Cougars vs Gonzaga BulldogsGonzaga Bulldogs (#3)72.0%BYU's offense (#16 AdjOE) is elite, but its defense (#88 AdjDE) is suspect. Gonzaga's defense (#9 AdjDE) is elite, and its offense is efficient. The Bulldogs' stifling defense against BYU's porous defense is the key. Gonzaga wins 72%.
mm26-w-r2-g42Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Purdue BoilermakersPurdue Boilermakers (#2)78.0%Purdue (adj. offense #1) meets Miami's solid D (#45) in a clash of tempos. Can Miami speed up the Boilermakers? Purdue's elite efficiency and tougher schedule make them a 78% favorite in a potential shootout.
mm26-e-r3-g13Duke Blue Devils vs St. John's Red StormDuke Blue Devils (#1)85.0%Duke is a juggernaut (#1 defense, #5 offense). St. John's defends well (#12) but lacks firepower (#47 O). A 5-seed's glass slipper likely shatters vs. Blue Devils' machine. Duke has an 85% win probability.
mm26-e-r3-g23Michigan State Spartans vs UConn HuskiesUConn Huskies (#2)58.0%UConn's stifling defense (AdjDE #11) vs Michigan State's tough road (SOS #9). Huskies have elite efficiency & WAB in high-quality games. Spartans' elite ORB% is key, but UConn's balanced attack wins a close battle. 58% win.
mm26-mw-r3-g13Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Tech Red RaidersMichigan Wolverines (#1)82.0%Michigan's dominant defense (AdjDE #2) meets Texas Tech's explosive offense (AdjOE #8) in a clash of styles. The Wolverines' efficiency, elite rim protection, and #1 SOS give them a commanding 82% win probability in the Midwest.
mm26-mw-r3-g23Virginia Cavaliers vs Iowa State CyclonesVirginia Cavaliers (#3)55.0%Elite defense meets defensive discipline in a clash of contrasting strengths. Iowa State's turnover-forcing havoc (#6 AdjDE, 22.2% Def TO%) is the headline, but Virginia's offensive efficiency (121.7 AdjOE) and elite shooting (55.1% eFG) vs a vulnerable Cyclone eFG% defense (49.5%) sets up a classic rock fight. Virginia 55% win.
mm26-s-r3-g13Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt CommodoresFlorida Gators (#1)65.0%Vanderbilt just beat Florida by 17 in the SEC Tournament. Can they do it again? Florida boasts a #3 defense, but Vandy's elite #11 offense just shredded it. Florida's inside dominance vs Vandy's ball security & shooting - a classic clash. Florida 65% win.
mm26-s-r3-g23Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston CougarsHouston Cougars (#2)62.0%Elite O vs. Elite D. Illinois' #2 offense (AdjOE 131.9) faces Houston's #5 defense (AdjDE 91.8). Illinois' glaring defensive weakness and Houston's forcing of turnovers is the clash. Houston holds the edge in a rock fight. 62% win probability.
mm26-w-r3-g13Arizona Wildcats vs Arkansas RazorbacksArizona Wildcats (#1)75.0%Arizona's elite defense (AdjDE #4) collides with Arkansas's high-powered offense (AdjOE #6). The Wildcats are more balanced and tournament-tested, with a 0.9771 Barthag and elite defensive rebounding. Expect Arizona to control the glass and limit second chances, dictating the physical pace. Arizona has a 75% win probability.
mm26-w-r3-g23Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue BoilermakersPurdue Boilermakers (#2)63.0%#2 Purdue's #1 offense vs #9 Gonzaga defense. Purdue faced brutal schedule (0.770 SOS) while Gonzaga's best wins came early. Purdue's elite offense & rebounding should overwhelm. Purdue 63% win.
mm26-e-r4-g14Duke Blue Devils vs UConn HuskiesDuke Blue Devils (#1)74.0%Duke's elite defense (#1 AdjDE) faces a versatile UConn offense, but the Blue Devils' #1 overall power rating and better efficiency in all Four Factors give them a clear 74% win probability. Look for Duke to control the glass and pace.
mm26-mw-r4-g14Michigan Wolverines vs Virginia CavaliersMichigan Wolverines (#1)81.0%Michigan (31-3) is elite on both ends (#4 offense, #2 defense) with the nation's best SOS. Virginia (29-5) is tough defensively (#14) but slower and has a weaker schedule. Michigan's interior size and efficiency should control this. Michigan has a 81% win probability.
mm26-s-r4-g14Florida Gators vs Houston CougarsFlorida Gators (#1)59.0%Elite defense meets elite rebounding. Florida's #3 AdjDE and dominant glass-crashing (+17.8 ORB% margin) must contain Houston's ball-hawking guards (21.0% Def TO%). Slight edge to the #1 seed in a rock fight — 59% win probability.
mm26-w-r4-g14Arizona Wildcats vs Purdue BoilermakersArizona Wildcats (#1)72.0%Arizona's defense is the ultimate test for Purdue's top-ranked offense. Elite efficiency vs. elite efficiency, but the Wildcats' #4 D and better shot defense (45.0% def eFG% vs Purdue's 52.7%) gets them through. Arizona wins 72% of the time in a clash of titans.
mm26-ff-g15Duke Blue Devils vs Arizona WildcatsDuke Blue Devils (#1)52.0%The nation's top defense clashes with a hyper-efficient offense in a true 1-seed heavyweight fight. Duke's #1-ranked defense (AdjDE 90.4) faces its toughest test in Arizona's fast-paced, high-octane attack (AdjTempo 70.1). I'm taking the Blue Devils 52% of the time.
mm26-ff-g25Florida Gators vs Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines (#1)68.0%1-seed clash pits Michigan's elite offense (#4 OE) vs Florida's lockdown D (#3 DE). Michigan has #2 Barthag, tougher SOS, and 31-3 record. 68% win for Wolverines in a rock fight.
mm26-championship6Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan WolverinesDuke Blue Devils (#1)52.0%#1 offense (#4 Michigan) vs #1 defense (#1 Duke) in a true heavyweight clash. Blue Devils have the slight overall edge (52% win), elite defense, and already beat Michigan 68-63 in Feb. Could come down to one possession.