2026 National Championship
Gemini 2.5 Pro Bracket
Deep strategic analysis with advanced reasoning
Window: Tournament Start
Leaderboard Rank
—
Score
0
Correct Picks
0
Predictions
63
Submission Window
Models
| Game | Round | Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm26-e-r1-g1 | 1 | Duke Blue Devils vs Siena Saints | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 99.0% | A true mismatch. Duke's #1 defense and explosive offense are statistically overwhelming for Siena. The Blue Devils boast a 99% win probability in this David vs. Goliath showdown. |
| mm26-e-r1-g2 | 1 | Ohio State Buckeyes vs TCU Horned Frogs | Ohio State Buckeyes (#8) | 68.0% | Ohio St.'s #12 ranked offense and elite shooting give them a 68% win probability against a tough, turnover-forcing TCU defense. Expect OSU's efficiency to be the deciding factor in a close game. |
| mm26-e-r1-g3 | 1 | St. John's Red Storm vs Northern Iowa Panthers | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 88.0% | St. John's, a battle-tested Big East power, combines elite defense (#12) with dominant rebounding. Northern Iowa's slow pace and hot streak will be tested by a far superior opponent. St. John's has an 88% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r1-g4 | 1 | Kansas Jayhawks vs Cal Baptist Lancers | Kansas Jayhawks (#4) | 95.0% | Kansas's elite D (#10) and major-conference muscle should smother Cal Baptist. The Jayhawks' power rating is miles ahead, making this a tough test for the Lancers' high-scoring guard. (95% win prob.) |
| mm26-e-r1-g5 | 1 | Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida Bulls | Louisville Cardinals (#6) | 82.0% | Louisville's elite efficiency (top 25 O & D) and battle-tested ACC resume clashes with South Florida's glass-crashing, foul-drawing style. The Cardinals' superior shooting gives them an 82% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r1-g6 | 1 | Michigan State Spartans vs North Dakota State Bison | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 94.0% | Elite Michigan St. leverages overwhelming size and top-tier efficiency against an untested North Dakota St. The Spartans' brutal interior presence and dominance on the glass should pave the way for a decisive victory. Win Probability: 94%. |
| mm26-e-r1-g7 | 1 | UCLA Bruins vs UCF Knights | UCLA Bruins (#7) | 82.0% | UCLA's elite offense & disciplined play clash with UCF's fast-paced attack & shaky D. The Bruins' efficiency and low turnover rate give them a major edge against a porous defense. UCLA Win Probability: 82% |
| mm26-e-r1-g8 | 1 | UConn Huskies vs Furman Paladins | UConn Huskies (#2) | 98.0% | Elite on both ends, Connecticut's size and battle-tested defense should overwhelm Furman's one-dimensional attack. The Huskies' statistical dominance points to a lopsided affair. Connecticut 98% win. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g1 | 1 | Michigan Wolverines vs UMBC/Howard | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 100.0% | Michigan Wolverines advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g2 | 1 | Georgia Bulldogs vs Saint Louis Billikens | Georgia Bulldogs (#8) | 58.0% | SEC-tested Georgia's edge on the glass and in the turnover battle will overcome Saint Louis's untested efficiency. The Bulldogs' power and experience give them a 58% win probability in this fast-paced shootout. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g3 | 1 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Akron Zips | Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5) | 85.0% | Power conference muscle vs. a mid-major dream. Texas Tech's elite, battle-tested offense faces an Akron team with hot shooters but a weak schedule. The talent gap is real. 85% win probability for the Red Raiders. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g4 | 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide vs Hofstra Pride | Alabama Crimson Tide (#4) | 95.0% | Alabama's #3 ranked offense brings high-octane firepower that will be too much for Hofstra's defense. The Crimson Tide's blistering pace and elite shooting should overwhelm the Pride. 95% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g5 | 1 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Miami (OH)/SMU | Tennessee Volunteers (#6) | 100.0% | Tennessee Volunteers advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g6 | 1 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Wright State Raiders | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 96.0% | Virginia's elite, suffocating defense faces a Wright St. team that put up points against a weak schedule. The Cavaliers' deliberate pace and battle-tested pedigree will grind down the Raiders' offense. Virginia win probability: 96%. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g7 | 1 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Santa Clara Broncos | Kentucky Wildcats (#7) | 55.0% | Classic offense vs. defense. Santa Clara's #15 offense faces Kentucky's #32 defense. UK is more battle-tested and has a massive free-throw advantage that should decide this nail-biter. Kentucky has a 55% chance to win. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g8 | 1 | Iowa State Cyclones vs Tennessee State Tigers | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 98.0% | An elite, turnover-forcing defense meets a heavy underdog. Iowa St.'s top-10 power rating and battle-tested resume project a dominant performance against a defensively weak Tennessee St. squad. Iowa St. 98% win. |
| mm26-s-r1-g1 | 1 | Florida Gators vs Prairie View A&M/Lehigh | Florida Gators (#1) | 100.0% | Florida Gators advances |
| mm26-s-r1-g2 | 1 | Clemson Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes | Clemson Tigers (#8) | 55.0% | A classic offense-vs-defense battle. Clemson's top-20 D and experience in tight games gives them the edge over Iowa's high-powered but faltering offense. Clemson 55% win. |
| mm26-s-r1-g3 | 1 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs McNeese Cowboys | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 88.0% | Vanderbilt's elite offense (#11) & ball security clash with McNeese's turnover-hungry D. The Commodores are too tested, too efficient; McNeese's weak schedule is a liability. Vanderbilt has an 88% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r1-g4 | 1 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Troy Trojans | Nebraska Cornhuskers (#4) | 92.0% | Elite defense vs. glass-crashing underdog. Nebraska's suffocating D & ball security give them a 92% win chance against a Troy team that lives on second chances. Will grit be enough? |
| mm26-s-r1-g5 | 1 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs VCU Rams | North Carolina Tar Heels (#6) | 80.0% | North Carolina's efficient, battle-tested offense clashes with VCU's scrappy, foul-drawing style. UNC's size and discipline should neutralize VCU's primary strengths. Expect the Tar Heels to control the game. 80% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r1-g6 | 1 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn Quakers | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 97.0% | Illinois's #2 ranked offense and overwhelming size create a nightmare matchup for a Penn team that struggled against a much weaker schedule. The Illini's dominance on the glass and superior efficiency point to a rout. 97% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r1-g7 | 1 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Texas A&M Aggies | Saint Mary's Gaels (#7) | 58.0% | Elite defense and relentless rebounding give Saint Mary's the edge over a battle-tested but inconsistent Texas A&M. The Gaels will grind this out, controlling the glass and the pace to frustrate the Aggies' attack. 58% win. |
| mm26-s-r1-g8 | 1 | Houston Cougars vs Idaho Vandals | Houston Cougars (#2) | 98.0% | Elite Houston's suffocating defense and relentless rebounding face an Idaho team that's outmatched in every phase. A classic March mismatch. 98% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g1 | 1 | Arizona Wildcats vs LIU Sharks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 99.0% | Elite on both ends of the floor, Arizona's size and relentless offensive attack should overwhelm LIU. The Wildcats are battle-tested against top competition, while the Sharks have struggled. Expect a blowout. (99% win probability for Arizona) |
| mm26-w-r1-g2 | 1 | Villanova Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Utah State Aggies (#9) | 55.0% | A classic 8-9 toss-up. Utah State's high-octane offense (#27) meets Villanova's gritty defense (#37). The Aggies' superior shooting and knack for forcing turnovers give them a slight edge in a game of contrasting styles. Utah St. 55% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g3 | 1 | Wisconsin Badgers vs High Point Panthers | Wisconsin Badgers (#5) | 92.0% | A battle-tested Wisconsin squad wields a top-10 offense against a porous High Point defense. The Badgers' experience and efficiency in a tougher conference give them a decisive edge. Wisconsin: 92% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g4 | 1 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 92.0% | Arkansas's #6 offense, led by star freshman Darius Acuff Jr., is a juggernaut built to run. Hawaii's solid defense will be overwhelmed by the pace and firepower. High-scoring affair likely. Arkansas: 92% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g5 | 1 | BYU Cougars vs Texas/NC State | BYU Cougars (#6) | 100.0% | BYU Cougars advances |
| mm26-w-r1-g6 | 1 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Kennesaw State Owls | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 95.0% | Elite Gonzaga offense faces a porous Kennesaw St. defense. With a huge advantage in efficiency, shooting, and strength of schedule, the Zags are poised for a blowout. 95% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r1-g7 | 1 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Missouri Tigers | Miami (FL) Hurricanes (#7) | 68.0% | Miami's elite rebounding and ball control clash with Missouri's foul-drawing offense. The Hurricanes' significant edge on the glass and superior efficiency against top opponents give them a 68% win probability in this battle of slumping teams. |
| mm26-w-r1-g8 | 1 | Purdue Boilermakers vs Queens University Royals | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 98.0% | The NCAA Tournament kicks off with a classic David vs. Goliath. Purdue's historic #1 offense faces Queens' 317th-ranked defense in a massive mismatch. With a 98% win probability, expect Purdue's battle-tested squad to dominate. |
| mm26-e-r2-g1 | 2 | Duke Blue Devils vs Ohio State Buckeyes | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 92.0% | Duke's #1 ranked defense and overwhelming rebounding advantage will stifle Ohio State's potent but vulnerable offense. The Blue Devils are too deep, disciplined, and battle-tested. 92% win. |
| mm26-e-r2-g2 | 2 | St. John's Red Storm vs Kansas Jayhawks | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 62.0% | St. John's rides a wave of momentum, using elite offensive rebounding and a relentless attack on the rim to overwhelm a slumping Kansas team. A physical matchup favors the hot hand. 62% win. |
| mm26-e-r2-g3 | 2 | Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 75.0% | Michigan State's dominant rebounding and stout defense look to smother Louisville's high-powered guard play. The Spartans' physicality and experience against a tougher schedule give them the edge. 75% win. |
| mm26-e-r2-g4 | 2 | UCLA Bruins vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 85.0% | A clash of styles pits UCLA's careful, efficient offense against UConn's suffocating defense and brutal rebounding. The Huskies' overwhelming physical advantages and defensive prowess make them a heavy favorite. UConn 85% win. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g1 | 2 | Michigan Wolverines vs Georgia Bulldogs | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 92.0% | Elite two-way powerhouse Michigan leverages a suffocating defense (AdjDE #2) and dominant rebounding against Georgia's potent but defensively-flawed squad (AdjDE #93). Expect Michigan's size and efficiency to control the game. 92% win. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g2 | 2 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide | Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5) | 60.0% | Clash of styles: Texas Tech's balanced, top-30 defense aims to ground Alabama's high-flying #3 offense. With a major edge on the offensive glass and a higher power rating, the Red Raiders have a 60% chance to pull the mild upset. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g3 | 2 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Cavaliers | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 65.0% | A clash of elite defenses and identical tempos. Virginia's superior shooting and poise in big games gives them a 65% win probability against a volatile Tennessee team that lives on the offensive glass. Expect a low-scoring grinder. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g4 | 2 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 85.0% | Iowa State's suffocating, top-10 defense will clash with Kentucky's potent but inconsistent offense. The Cyclones force turnovers at an elite rate, a metric that will define this matchup and gives them a clear edge. ISU has an 85% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r2-g1 | 2 | Florida Gators vs Clemson Tigers | Florida Gators (#1) | 85.0% | Florida's top-tier offense and defense face a gritty Clemson team. The Gators' overwhelming advantage on the offensive glass is the key mismatch, making them a heavy favorite to advance. 85% win. |
| mm26-s-r2-g2 | 2 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 60.0% | Vanderbilt's #11 offense aims to outgun Nebraska's #7 defense in a classic clash of styles. The Commodores' ability to get to the free-throw line will be the deciding factor. Vanderbilt wins with 60% probability. |
| mm26-s-r2-g3 | 2 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs Illinois Fighting Illini | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 85.0% | Illinois' #2 ranked offense and dominant rebounding face a good-but-not-great UNC squad. The Illini's overwhelming edge on the glass and overall efficiency will be too much to handle. Illinois: 85% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r2-g4 | 2 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 88.0% | Elite defense clashes with disciplined efficiency. Houston's relentless pressure and battle-tested pedigree should smother Saint Mary's methodical attack. Houston wins, 88% confidence. |
| mm26-w-r2-g1 | 2 | Arizona Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 91.0% | Elite on both ends, Arizona's overwhelming size and defensive prowess should stifle Utah St.'s high-powered offense. The Wildcats' dominance on the glass and battle-tested resume point to a convincing win. 91% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r2-g2 | 2 | Wisconsin Badgers vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 68.0% | A battle of elite offenses. Arkansas's superior shooting, rebounding, and tougher schedule gives them a clear edge over Wisconsin in a game that promises fireworks. Razorbacks have a 68% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r2-g3 | 2 | BYU Cougars vs Gonzaga Bulldogs | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 84.0% | Gonzaga's lockdown defense (Rank #9) faces BYU's potent but porous squad. The Zags' balanced attack and massive defensive advantage against a struggling BYU team gives them a clear edge. Our pick: Gonzaga, 84% win. |
| mm26-w-r2-g4 | 2 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 82.0% | Purdue's historically efficient offense (#1 AdjOE) clashes with a balanced Miami squad. The Boilermakers' superior firepower and cleaner play against a tougher schedule give them an 82% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r3-g1 | 3 | Duke Blue Devils vs St. John's Red Storm | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 85.0% | Duke's suffocating #1 defense and hyper-efficient offense face a gritty, defense-first St. John's team. But the Blue Devils' overwhelming advantages in shooting and rebounding point to a clear victory. Duke: 85% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r3-g2 | 3 | Michigan State Spartans vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 55.0% | A true toss-up between two physical, elite teams. UConn's superior shooting efficiency clashes with Michigan St.'s dominance on the offensive glass and at the free-throw line. A game decided on the margins. UConn 55% win. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g1 | 3 | Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 85.0% | Elite on both ends, Michigan's #2 defense and superior rebounding face a potent but flawed Texas Tech offense. The Wolverines' depth and dominance on the glass give them an 85% win probability in this battle of contrasting styles. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g2 | 3 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 65.0% | Elite defenses collide as Iowa St's turnover-forcing machine clashes with Virginia's methodical grind. The Cyclones' defensive havoc gives them a 65% win probability in what projects to be a brutal, low-possession battle. |
| mm26-s-r3-g1 | 3 | Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt Commodores | Florida Gators (#1) | 65.0% | SEC rematch! Florida's elite defense and overwhelming rebounding face Vanderbilt's sharp-shooting, low-turnover offense that just beat them. Can the Gators get revenge? Analytics give Florida a 65% win probability in a high-scoring affair. |
| mm26-s-r3-g2 | 3 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 58.0% | Clash of titans: Illinois's #2 ranked offense faces Houston's #5 ranked defense. The Cougars' suffocating pressure and ability to force turnovers will be the difference in a physical, low-possession grind. Houston wins with 58% probability. |
| mm26-w-r3-g1 | 3 | Arizona Wildcats vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 85.0% | Elite two-way powerhouse Arizona clashes with Arkansas's explosive, but defensively-flawed, offense. The Wildcats' stifling defense, rebounding dominance, and tournament-tested toughness give them an 85% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r3-g2 | 3 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue Boilermakers | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 65.0% | Upset Alert! Gonzaga's elite D (#9) and balanced scoring are built to dismantle Purdue's #1 offense. The Zags' ability to force turnovers and defend the perimeter will exploit the Boilermakers' defensive flaws. Gonzaga 65% win. |
| mm26-e-r4-g1 | 4 | Duke Blue Devils vs UConn Huskies | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 82.0% | Duke's smothering #1 defense and relentless offensive rebounding will overpower a talented but inconsistent UConn squad. The data points to a clear Blue Devil advantage. 82% win. |
| mm26-mw-r4-g1 | 4 | Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa State Cyclones | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 85.0% | Michigan's #2 ranked defense is built to stifle Iowa St, whose turnover-reliant D faces a ball-secure Wolverine offense. With a huge SOS edge, Michigan projects to an 85% win. |
| mm26-s-r4-g1 | 4 | Florida Gators vs Houston Cougars | Florida Gators (#1) | 55.0% | An unstoppable force meets an immovable object. Florida's elite offense and gargantuan rebounding advantage face Houston's suffocating, turnover-forcing defense. A true toss-up with a 55% win probability for the Gators. |
| mm26-w-r4-g1 | 4 | Arizona Wildcats vs Gonzaga Bulldogs | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 75.0% | Clash of titans: Arizona's top-10 O & D faces Gonzaga's elite shooting. But 'Zona's overwhelming physicality and battle-tested resume give them a 75% win probability. The free-throw line will be the difference. |
| mm26-ff-g1 | 5 | Duke Blue Devils vs Arizona Wildcats | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 55.0% | Clash of titans. #1 ranked Duke's suffocating defense and superstar Cameron Boozer face Arizona's high-powered, fast-paced attack in a battle of 32-2 goliaths. A true toss-up, but Duke's defense gives them the narrow edge. Duke 55% win. |
| mm26-ff-g2 | 5 | Florida Gators vs Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 72.0% | Clash of titans: Michigan's elite efficiency (#2 AdjDE, #4 AdjOE) faces Florida's rebounding prowess. Michigan's superior shooting and defensive discipline give them the edge. 72% win. |
| mm26-championship | 6 | Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan Wolverines | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 65.0% | A clash of titans: Duke's suffocating #1 defense and relentless offensive glass-work versus Michigan's #4 high-octane offense. In a rematch of a tight regular season contest, we give Duke a 65% chance to grind out another win. |