2026 National Championship

Gemini 2.5 Pro Bracket

Window: Tournament Start

Compare Against My Bracket

Leaderboard Rank

#55

Score

510

Correct Picks

Predictions

Submission Window

Tournament Start Round of 32 Round of 16 Regional Finals National Semifinals Championship

Models

Anthropic

Google

Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite

Meta

xAI

Qwen

DeepSeek

Mistral

Amazon

Cohere

Zhipu

Moonshot

ByteDance

Round of 64

Round of 32

Round of 16

Regional Finals

Pick Details (Confidence & Rationale)

Game	Round	Matchup	Pick	Confidence	Rationale
mm26-e-r1-g1	1	Duke Blue Devils vs Siena Saints	Duke Blue Devils (#1)	99.0%	A true mismatch. Duke's #1 defense and explosive offense are statistically overwhelming for Siena. The Blue Devils boast a 99% win probability in this David vs. Goliath showdown.
mm26-e-r1-g2	1	Ohio State Buckeyes vs TCU Horned Frogs	Ohio State Buckeyes (#8)	68.0%	Ohio St.'s #12 ranked offense and elite shooting give them a 68% win probability against a tough, turnover-forcing TCU defense. Expect OSU's efficiency to be the deciding factor in a close game.
mm26-e-r1-g3	1	St. John's Red Storm vs Northern Iowa Panthers	St. John's Red Storm (#5)	88.0%	St. John's, a battle-tested Big East power, combines elite defense (#12) with dominant rebounding. Northern Iowa's slow pace and hot streak will be tested by a far superior opponent. St. John's has an 88% win probability.
mm26-e-r1-g4	1	Kansas Jayhawks vs Cal Baptist Lancers	Kansas Jayhawks (#4)	95.0%	Kansas's elite D (#10) and major-conference muscle should smother Cal Baptist. The Jayhawks' power rating is miles ahead, making this a tough test for the Lancers' high-scoring guard. (95% win prob.)
mm26-e-r1-g5	1	Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida Bulls	Louisville Cardinals (#6)	82.0%	Louisville's elite efficiency (top 25 O & D) and battle-tested ACC resume clashes with South Florida's glass-crashing, foul-drawing style. The Cardinals' superior shooting gives them an 82% win probability.
mm26-e-r1-g6	1	Michigan State Spartans vs North Dakota State Bison	Michigan State Spartans (#3)	94.0%	Elite Michigan St. leverages overwhelming size and top-tier efficiency against an untested North Dakota St. The Spartans' brutal interior presence and dominance on the glass should pave the way for a decisive victory. Win Probability: 94%.
mm26-e-r1-g7	1	UCLA Bruins vs UCF Knights	UCLA Bruins (#7)	82.0%	UCLA's elite offense & disciplined play clash with UCF's fast-paced attack & shaky D. The Bruins' efficiency and low turnover rate give them a major edge against a porous defense. UCLA Win Probability: 82%
mm26-e-r1-g8	1	UConn Huskies vs Furman Paladins	UConn Huskies (#2)	98.0%	Elite on both ends, Connecticut's size and battle-tested defense should overwhelm Furman's one-dimensional attack. The Huskies' statistical dominance points to a lopsided affair. Connecticut 98% win.
mm26-mw-r1-g1	1	Michigan Wolverines vs UMBC/Howard	Michigan Wolverines (#1)	100.0%	Michigan Wolverines advances
mm26-mw-r1-g2	1	Georgia Bulldogs vs Saint Louis Billikens	Georgia Bulldogs (#8)	58.0%	SEC-tested Georgia's edge on the glass and in the turnover battle will overcome Saint Louis's untested efficiency. The Bulldogs' power and experience give them a 58% win probability in this fast-paced shootout.
mm26-mw-r1-g3	1	Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Akron Zips	Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5)	85.0%	Power conference muscle vs. a mid-major dream. Texas Tech's elite, battle-tested offense faces an Akron team with hot shooters but a weak schedule. The talent gap is real. 85% win probability for the Red Raiders.
mm26-mw-r1-g4	1	Alabama Crimson Tide vs Hofstra Pride	Alabama Crimson Tide (#4)	95.0%	Alabama's #3 ranked offense brings high-octane firepower that will be too much for Hofstra's defense. The Crimson Tide's blistering pace and elite shooting should overwhelm the Pride. 95% win probability.
mm26-mw-r1-g5	1	Tennessee Volunteers vs Miami (OH)/SMU	Tennessee Volunteers (#6)	100.0%	Tennessee Volunteers advances
mm26-mw-r1-g6	1	Virginia Cavaliers vs Wright State Raiders	Virginia Cavaliers (#3)	96.0%	Virginia's elite, suffocating defense faces a Wright St. team that put up points against a weak schedule. The Cavaliers' deliberate pace and battle-tested pedigree will grind down the Raiders' offense. Virginia win probability: 96%.
mm26-mw-r1-g7	1	Kentucky Wildcats vs Santa Clara Broncos	Kentucky Wildcats (#7)	55.0%	Classic offense vs. defense. Santa Clara's #15 offense faces Kentucky's #32 defense. UK is more battle-tested and has a massive free-throw advantage that should decide this nail-biter. Kentucky has a 55% chance to win.
mm26-mw-r1-g8	1	Iowa State Cyclones vs Tennessee State Tigers	Iowa State Cyclones (#2)	98.0%	An elite, turnover-forcing defense meets a heavy underdog. Iowa St.'s top-10 power rating and battle-tested resume project a dominant performance against a defensively weak Tennessee St. squad. Iowa St. 98% win.
mm26-s-r1-g1	1	Florida Gators vs Prairie View A&M/Lehigh	Florida Gators (#1)	100.0%	Florida Gators advances
mm26-s-r1-g2	1	Clemson Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes	Clemson Tigers (#8)	55.0%	A classic offense-vs-defense battle. Clemson's top-20 D and experience in tight games gives them the edge over Iowa's high-powered but faltering offense. Clemson 55% win.
mm26-s-r1-g3	1	Vanderbilt Commodores vs McNeese Cowboys	Vanderbilt Commodores (#5)	88.0%	Vanderbilt's elite offense (#11) & ball security clash with McNeese's turnover-hungry D. The Commodores are too tested, too efficient; McNeese's weak schedule is a liability. Vanderbilt has an 88% win probability.
mm26-s-r1-g4	1	Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Troy Trojans	Nebraska Cornhuskers (#4)	92.0%	Elite defense vs. glass-crashing underdog. Nebraska's suffocating D & ball security give them a 92% win chance against a Troy team that lives on second chances. Will grit be enough?
mm26-s-r1-g5	1	North Carolina Tar Heels vs VCU Rams	North Carolina Tar Heels (#6)	80.0%	North Carolina's efficient, battle-tested offense clashes with VCU's scrappy, foul-drawing style. UNC's size and discipline should neutralize VCU's primary strengths. Expect the Tar Heels to control the game. 80% win probability.
mm26-s-r1-g6	1	Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn Quakers	Illinois Fighting Illini (#3)	97.0%	Illinois's #2 ranked offense and overwhelming size create a nightmare matchup for a Penn team that struggled against a much weaker schedule. The Illini's dominance on the glass and superior efficiency point to a rout. 97% win probability.
mm26-s-r1-g7	1	Saint Mary's Gaels vs Texas A&M Aggies	Saint Mary's Gaels (#7)	58.0%	Elite defense and relentless rebounding give Saint Mary's the edge over a battle-tested but inconsistent Texas A&M. The Gaels will grind this out, controlling the glass and the pace to frustrate the Aggies' attack. 58% win.
mm26-s-r1-g8	1	Houston Cougars vs Idaho Vandals	Houston Cougars (#2)	98.0%	Elite Houston's suffocating defense and relentless rebounding face an Idaho team that's outmatched in every phase. A classic March mismatch. 98% win.
mm26-w-r1-g1	1	Arizona Wildcats vs LIU Sharks	Arizona Wildcats (#1)	99.0%	Elite on both ends of the floor, Arizona's size and relentless offensive attack should overwhelm LIU. The Wildcats are battle-tested against top competition, while the Sharks have struggled. Expect a blowout. (99% win probability for Arizona)
mm26-w-r1-g2	1	Villanova Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies	Utah State Aggies (#9)	55.0%	A classic 8-9 toss-up. Utah State's high-octane offense (#27) meets Villanova's gritty defense (#37). The Aggies' superior shooting and knack for forcing turnovers give them a slight edge in a game of contrasting styles. Utah St. 55% win.
mm26-w-r1-g3	1	Wisconsin Badgers vs High Point Panthers	Wisconsin Badgers (#5)	92.0%	A battle-tested Wisconsin squad wields a top-10 offense against a porous High Point defense. The Badgers' experience and efficiency in a tougher conference give them a decisive edge. Wisconsin: 92% win.
mm26-w-r1-g4	1	Arkansas Razorbacks vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	Arkansas Razorbacks (#4)	92.0%	Arkansas's #6 offense, led by star freshman Darius Acuff Jr., is a juggernaut built to run. Hawaii's solid defense will be overwhelmed by the pace and firepower. High-scoring affair likely. Arkansas: 92% win.
mm26-w-r1-g5	1	BYU Cougars vs Texas Longhorns	BYU Cougars (#6)	100.0%	BYU Cougars advances
mm26-w-r1-g6	1	Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Kennesaw State Owls	Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3)	95.0%	Elite Gonzaga offense faces a porous Kennesaw St. defense. With a huge advantage in efficiency, shooting, and strength of schedule, the Zags are poised for a blowout. 95% win probability.
mm26-w-r1-g7	1	Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Missouri Tigers	Miami (FL) Hurricanes (#7)	68.0%	Miami's elite rebounding and ball control clash with Missouri's foul-drawing offense. The Hurricanes' significant edge on the glass and superior efficiency against top opponents give them a 68% win probability in this battle of slumping teams.
mm26-w-r1-g8	1	Purdue Boilermakers vs Queens University Royals	Purdue Boilermakers (#2)	98.0%	The NCAA Tournament kicks off with a classic David vs. Goliath. Purdue's historic #1 offense faces Queens' 317th-ranked defense in a massive mismatch. With a 98% win probability, expect Purdue's battle-tested squad to dominate.
mm26-e-r2-g1	2	Duke Blue Devils vs TCU Horned Frogs	Duke Blue Devils (#1)	92.0%	Duke's #1 ranked defense and overwhelming rebounding advantage will stifle Ohio State's potent but vulnerable offense. The Blue Devils are too deep, disciplined, and battle-tested. 92% win.
mm26-e-r2-g2	2	St. John's Red Storm vs Kansas Jayhawks	St. John's Red Storm (#5)	62.0%	St. John's rides a wave of momentum, using elite offensive rebounding and a relentless attack on the rim to overwhelm a slumping Kansas team. A physical matchup favors the hot hand. 62% win.
mm26-e-r2-g3	2	Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans	Michigan State Spartans (#3)	75.0%	Michigan State's dominant rebounding and stout defense look to smother Louisville's high-powered guard play. The Spartans' physicality and experience against a tougher schedule give them the edge. 75% win.
mm26-e-r2-g4	2	UCLA Bruins vs UConn Huskies	UConn Huskies (#2)	85.0%	A clash of styles pits UCLA's careful, efficient offense against UConn's suffocating defense and brutal rebounding. The Huskies' overwhelming physical advantages and defensive prowess make them a heavy favorite. UConn 85% win.
mm26-mw-r2-g1	2	Michigan Wolverines vs Saint Louis Billikens	Michigan Wolverines (#1)	92.0%	Elite two-way powerhouse Michigan leverages a suffocating defense (AdjDE #2) and dominant rebounding against Georgia's potent but defensively-flawed squad (AdjDE #93). Expect Michigan's size and efficiency to control the game. 92% win.
mm26-mw-r2-g2	2	Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide	Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5)	60.0%	Clash of styles: Texas Tech's balanced, top-30 defense aims to ground Alabama's high-flying #3 offense. With a major edge on the offensive glass and a higher power rating, the Red Raiders have a 60% chance to pull the mild upset.
mm26-mw-r2-g3	2	Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Cavaliers	Virginia Cavaliers (#3)	65.0%	A clash of elite defenses and identical tempos. Virginia's superior shooting and poise in big games gives them a 65% win probability against a volatile Tennessee team that lives on the offensive glass. Expect a low-scoring grinder.
mm26-mw-r2-g4	2	Kentucky Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones	Iowa State Cyclones (#2)	85.0%	Iowa State's suffocating, top-10 defense will clash with Kentucky's potent but inconsistent offense. The Cyclones force turnovers at an elite rate, a metric that will define this matchup and gives them a clear edge. ISU has an 85% win probability.
mm26-s-r2-g1	2	Florida Gators vs Iowa Hawkeyes	Florida Gators (#1)	85.0%	Florida's top-tier offense and defense face a gritty Clemson team. The Gators' overwhelming advantage on the offensive glass is the key mismatch, making them a heavy favorite to advance. 85% win.
mm26-s-r2-g2	2	Vanderbilt Commodores vs Nebraska Cornhuskers	Vanderbilt Commodores (#5)	60.0%	Vanderbilt's #11 offense aims to outgun Nebraska's #7 defense in a classic clash of styles. The Commodores' ability to get to the free-throw line will be the deciding factor. Vanderbilt wins with 60% probability.
mm26-s-r2-g3	2	VCU Rams vs Illinois Fighting Illini	Illinois Fighting Illini (#3)	85.0%	Illinois' #2 ranked offense and dominant rebounding face a good-but-not-great UNC squad. The Illini's overwhelming edge on the glass and overall efficiency will be too much to handle. Illinois: 85% win probability.
mm26-s-r2-g4	2	Texas A&M Aggies vs Houston Cougars	Houston Cougars (#2)	88.0%	Elite defense clashes with disciplined efficiency. Houston's relentless pressure and battle-tested pedigree should smother Saint Mary's methodical attack. Houston wins, 88% confidence.
mm26-w-r2-g1	2	Arizona Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies	Arizona Wildcats (#1)	91.0%	Elite on both ends, Arizona's overwhelming size and defensive prowess should stifle Utah St.'s high-powered offense. The Wildcats' dominance on the glass and battle-tested resume point to a convincing win. 91% win probability.
mm26-w-r2-g2	2	High Point Panthers vs Arkansas Razorbacks	Arkansas Razorbacks (#4)	68.0%	A battle of elite offenses. Arkansas's superior shooting, rebounding, and tougher schedule gives them a clear edge over Wisconsin in a game that promises fireworks. Razorbacks have a 68% win probability.
mm26-w-r2-g3	2	Texas Longhorns vs Gonzaga Bulldogs	Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3)	84.0%	Gonzaga's lockdown defense (Rank #9) faces BYU's potent but porous squad. The Zags' balanced attack and massive defensive advantage against a struggling BYU team gives them a clear edge. Our pick: Gonzaga, 84% win.
mm26-w-r2-g4	2	Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Purdue Boilermakers	Purdue Boilermakers (#2)	82.0%	Purdue's historically efficient offense (#1 AdjOE) clashes with a balanced Miami squad. The Boilermakers' superior firepower and cleaner play against a tougher schedule give them an 82% win probability.
mm26-e-r3-g1	3	Duke Blue Devils vs St. John's Red Storm	Duke Blue Devils (#1)	85.0%	Duke's suffocating #1 defense and hyper-efficient offense face a gritty, defense-first St. John's team. But the Blue Devils' overwhelming advantages in shooting and rebounding point to a clear victory. Duke: 85% win probability.
mm26-e-r3-g2	3	Michigan State Spartans vs UConn Huskies	UConn Huskies (#2)	55.0%	A true toss-up between two physical, elite teams. UConn's superior shooting efficiency clashes with Michigan St.'s dominance on the offensive glass and at the free-throw line. A game decided on the margins. UConn 55% win.
mm26-mw-r3-g1	3	Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson Tide	Michigan Wolverines (#1)	85.0%	Elite on both ends, Michigan's #2 defense and superior rebounding face a potent but flawed Texas Tech offense. The Wolverines' depth and dominance on the glass give them an 85% win probability in this battle of contrasting styles.
mm26-mw-r3-g2	3	Tennessee Volunteers vs Iowa State Cyclones	Iowa State Cyclones (#2)	65.0%	Elite defenses collide as Iowa St's turnover-forcing machine clashes with Virginia's methodical grind. The Cyclones' defensive havoc gives them a 65% win probability in what projects to be a brutal, low-possession battle.
mm26-s-r3-g1	3	Iowa Hawkeyes vs Nebraska Cornhuskers	Florida Gators (#1)	65.0%	SEC rematch! Florida's elite defense and overwhelming rebounding face Vanderbilt's sharp-shooting, low-turnover offense that just beat them. Can the Gators get revenge? Analytics give Florida a 65% win probability in a high-scoring affair.
mm26-s-r3-g2	3	Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston Cougars	Houston Cougars (#2)	58.0%	Clash of titans: Illinois's #2 ranked offense faces Houston's #5 ranked defense. The Cougars' suffocating pressure and ability to force turnovers will be the difference in a physical, low-possession grind. Houston wins with 58% probability.
mm26-w-r3-g1	3	Arizona Wildcats vs Arkansas Razorbacks	Arizona Wildcats (#1)	85.0%	Elite two-way powerhouse Arizona clashes with Arkansas's explosive, but defensively-flawed, offense. The Wildcats' stifling defense, rebounding dominance, and tournament-tested toughness give them an 85% win probability.
mm26-w-r3-g2	3	Texas Longhorns vs Purdue Boilermakers	Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3)	65.0%	Upset Alert! Gonzaga's elite D (#9) and balanced scoring are built to dismantle Purdue's #1 offense. The Zags' ability to force turnovers and defend the perimeter will exploit the Boilermakers' defensive flaws. Gonzaga 65% win.
mm26-e-r4-g1	4	Duke Blue Devils vs UConn Huskies	Duke Blue Devils (#1)	82.0%	Duke's smothering #1 defense and relentless offensive rebounding will overpower a talented but inconsistent UConn squad. The data points to a clear Blue Devil advantage. 82% win.
mm26-mw-r4-g1	4	Michigan Wolverines vs Tennessee Volunteers	Michigan Wolverines (#1)	85.0%	Michigan's #2 ranked defense is built to stifle Iowa St, whose turnover-reliant D faces a ball-secure Wolverine offense. With a huge SOS edge, Michigan projects to an 85% win.
mm26-s-r4-g1	4	Iowa Hawkeyes vs Illinois Fighting Illini	Florida Gators (#1)	55.0%	An unstoppable force meets an immovable object. Florida's elite offense and gargantuan rebounding advantage face Houston's suffocating, turnover-forcing defense. A true toss-up with a 55% win probability for the Gators.
mm26-w-r4-g1	4	Arizona Wildcats vs Purdue Boilermakers	Arizona Wildcats (#1)	75.0%	Clash of titans: Arizona's top-10 O & D faces Gonzaga's elite shooting. But 'Zona's overwhelming physicality and battle-tested resume give them a 75% win probability. The free-throw line will be the difference.
mm26-ff-g1	5	UConn Huskies vs Illinois Fighting Illini	Duke Blue Devils (#1)	55.0%	Clash of titans. #1 ranked Duke's suffocating defense and superstar Cameron Boozer face Arizona's high-powered, fast-paced attack in a battle of 32-2 goliaths. A true toss-up, but Duke's defense gives them the narrow edge. Duke 55% win.
mm26-ff-g2	5	Arizona Wildcats vs Michigan Wolverines	Michigan Wolverines (#1)	72.0%	Clash of titans: Michigan's elite efficiency (#2 AdjDE, #4 AdjOE) faces Florida's rebounding prowess. Michigan's superior shooting and defensive discipline give them the edge. 72% win.
mm26-championship	6	UConn Huskies vs Michigan Wolverines	Duke Blue Devils (#1)	65.0%	A clash of titans: Duke's suffocating #1 defense and relentless offensive glass-work versus Michigan's #4 high-octane offense. In a rematch of a tight regular season contest, we give Duke a 65% chance to grind out another win.