2026 National Championship
Gemini 3 Flash Bracket
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Window: Tournament Start
Leaderboard Rank
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Correct Picks
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Predictions
63
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| Game | Round | Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm26-e-r1-g1 | 1 | Duke Blue Devils vs Siena Saints | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 99.0% | 99% win prob for Duke. The Blue Devils boast the #1 defense in the nation and the unstoppable Cameron Boozer. Siena is severely outmatched in size, talent, and efficiency metrics. Expect a dominant showing in the East. |
| mm26-e-r1-g2 | 1 | Ohio State Buckeyes vs TCU Horned Frogs | Ohio State Buckeyes (#8) | 68.0% | Ohio St. brings a top-15 offense led by Thornton’s 20.2 PPG against TCU’s grit. With a massive edge in shooting efficiency (56.9% eFG), the Buckeyes’ firepower is too much for the Frogs. 68% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r1-g3 | 1 | St. John's Red Storm vs Northern Iowa Panthers | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 82.0% | St. John's is a defensive juggernaut (Rank #12) entering on a tear after crushing UConn. Northern Iowa shoots well but cannot match the Red Storm's physicality on the glass (35.7% ORB) or at the stripe. 82% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r1-g4 | 1 | Kansas Jayhawks vs Cal Baptist Lancers | Kansas Jayhawks (#4) | 88.0% | Kansas brings a top-10 defense to face a Cal Baptist squad reliant on one superstar scorer. With an SOS gap of .342 and a massive efficiency edge, the Jayhawks are 88% likely to shut down the Lancers' Cinderella dreams. |
| mm26-e-r1-g5 | 1 | Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida Bulls | Louisville Cardinals (#6) | 78.0% | Louisville’s elite 124.0 AdjOE meets USF’s 11-game win streak. The Cardinals’ 56.6% eFG and top-25 defense provide too much firepower for a Bulls squad jumping up in class. 78% win prob. |
| mm26-e-r1-g6 | 1 | Michigan State Spartans vs North Dakota State Bison | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 94.0% | MSU’s elite glass-cleaning (38.5% ORB%) and Jeremy Fears Jr.’s elite playmaking (9.2 APG) should overwhelm the Bison. NDSU lacks the size to match Kohler and Cooper inside. 94% win probability for the Spartans. |
| mm26-e-r1-g7 | 1 | UCLA Bruins vs UCF Knights | UCLA Bruins (#7) | 82.0% | UCLA brings a top-20 offense and elite playmaking (Dent: 7.6 APG) to face a UCF defense ranked #112. While the Knights are monsters on the offensive glass, UCLA's superior efficiency and ball security should dominate. 82% win. |
| mm26-e-r1-g8 | 1 | UConn Huskies vs Furman Paladins | UConn Huskies (#2) | 96.0% | UConn's elite #11 defense and massive rebounding advantage (35.8% ORB) should overwhelm a Furman squad ranked #195 in power. The Huskies are battle-tested with a top-5 WAB and #9 overall Barthag. 96% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g1 | 1 | Michigan Wolverines vs UMBC/Howard | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 100.0% | Michigan Wolverines advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g2 | 1 | Georgia Bulldogs vs Saint Louis Billikens | Georgia Bulldogs (#8) | 58.0% | Georgia's #18 offense is the hammer against Saint Louis's paper-thin defensive stats. While the Billikens shoot the lights out, the Bulldogs' SEC battle-scars and elite ball security provide the 58% win edge in a high-octane 8/9 clash. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g3 | 1 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Akron Zips | Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5) | 82.0% | Texas Tech’s #8 offense meets Akron’s #100 defense. With JT Toppin (21.8 PPG) and Christian Anderson (7.6 APG), the Red Raiders are too efficient for the Zips. 82% win probability for the battle-tested Big 12 squad. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g4 | 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide vs Hofstra Pride | Alabama Crimson Tide (#4) | 88.0% | Alabama brings the nation's #3 offense (129.5 AdjOE) into a track meet that Hofstra likely can't finish. With four players averaging double figures and an elite SOS, the Crimson Tide are built for a deep run. 88% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g5 | 1 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Miami (OH)/SMU | Tennessee Volunteers (#6) | 100.0% | Tennessee Volunteers advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g6 | 1 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Wright State Raiders | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 95.0% | Virginia's top-15 defense meets Wright State's #180 ranked unit. With an elite eFG% and a massive SOS edge, the Cavaliers possess too much firepower and discipline for the Raiders to pull off the shocker. 95% win. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g7 | 1 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Santa Clara Broncos | Kentucky Wildcats (#7) | 54.0% | SEC grit meets WCC fire. Kentucky brings a top-40 defense and elite schedule strength to neutralize Santa Clara's #15 ranked offense. Expect a physical battle where Kentucky's ability to draw fouls decides it (54% win). |
| mm26-mw-r1-g8 | 1 | Iowa State Cyclones vs Tennessee State Tigers | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 98.0% | Iowa St. (98% win) is a defensive juggernaut (Rank #6) that should dismantle Tennessee St. The Cyclones' elite SOS and the clinical efficiency of Milan Momcilovic (67.9% eFG) are far too much for the OVC's #218-rated Tigers. |
| mm26-s-r1-g1 | 1 | Florida Gators vs Prairie View A&M/Lehigh | Florida Gators (#1) | 100.0% | Florida Gators advances |
| mm26-s-r1-g2 | 1 | Clemson Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes | Iowa Hawkeyes (#9) | 56.0% | Iowa's #29 offense, led by Bennett Stirtz (20 PPG), collides with Clemson's #20 ranked defense. While the Tigers are 7-0 in close games, Iowa's elite 56.7% shooting gives them the efficiency edge in this 8/9 toss-up. 56% win. |
| mm26-s-r1-g3 | 1 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs McNeese Cowboys | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 89.0% | Vanderbilt's #11 offense is too surgical for McNeese’s chaos-ball. While the Cowboys force turnovers at a 24.5% clip, the Commodores are elite at ball security (13.2% TO%). SEC size and depth rule. 89% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r1-g4 | 1 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Troy Trojans | Nebraska Cornhuskers (#4) | 88.0% | Nebraska’s #7 ranked defense (93.4 AdjDE) is a brick wall Troy simply can't climb. With an elite SOS and a 20-game win streak earlier this year, the Huskers are built for March. 88% win probability for the B10 powerhouse. |
| mm26-s-r1-g5 | 1 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs VCU Rams | North Carolina Tar Heels (#6) | 72.0% | Battle-tested North Carolina (72% win) brings top-35 efficiency on both ends to stifle VCU's foul-heavy attack. The Tar Heels' elite frontcourt of Veesaar and Wilson is too much for the A10 champs to handle. |
| mm26-s-r1-g6 | 1 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn Quakers | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 98.0% | Illinois boasts the nation's #2 offense and an elite 39% offensive rebounding rate that should overwhelm a Penn squad ranked outside the top 200. Expect the Illini to bully the Quakers inside. 98% win. |
| mm26-s-r1-g7 | 1 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Texas A&M Aggies | Saint Mary's Gaels (#7) | 68.0% | Saint Mary's (68% win) brings an elite #22 defense and a dominant 37.4% offensive rebounding rate to clash with Texas A&M’s SEC speed. Expect the Gaels to stifle the Aggies in a physical half-court grind. #MarchMadness |
| mm26-s-r1-g8 | 1 | Houston Cougars vs Idaho Vandals | Houston Cougars (#2) | 98.0% | Houston brings a top-5 defense and elite physicality into this matchup. While Idaho is riding a 5-game win streak, the Cougars' suffocating pressure and glass dominance should overwhelm the Vandals. 98% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r1-g1 | 1 | Arizona Wildcats vs LIU Sharks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 99.0% | Arizona is a juggernaut with the #4 defense and #9 offense. LIU lacks the size to stop a 37.7% offensive rebounding rate. 99% win probability. Wildcats dominate the paint and transition to cruise. #MarchMadness |
| mm26-w-r1-g2 | 1 | Villanova Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Utah State Aggies (#9) | 60.0% | Utah State's #27 offense collides with Villanova's top-40 defense. The Aggies enter on a four-game heater after winning the MWC title, while Nova is reeling from a Georgetown upset. USU's elite 56.9% eFG% is the edge. 60% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g3 | 1 | Wisconsin Badgers vs High Point Panthers | Wisconsin Badgers (#5) | 88.0% | Wisconsin brings the nation's #7 offense (127.6 AdjOE) to face a High Point defense ranked outside the top 140. Nick Boyd and John Blackwell average 40 PPG combined. The Badgers are too efficient for the Panthers. 88% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r1-g4 | 1 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 88.0% | Arkansas' #6 offense (127.8 AdjOE) meets Hawaii's #52 defense in a clash of styles. Darius Acuff Jr. is a superstar Hawaii can't stop, and the Rainbow Warriors' 18.9% turnover rate is a recipe for disaster. 88% win for the Hogs. |
| mm26-w-r1-g5 | 1 | BYU Cougars vs Texas/NC State | BYU Cougars (#6) | 100.0% | BYU Cougars advances |
| mm26-w-r1-g6 | 1 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Kennesaw State Owls | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 98.0% | Gonzaga's #9-ranked defense meets Kennesaw State's high-foul-rate attack. With a massive efficiency gap and Graham Ike dominating the paint, the Bulldogs are primed for a deep run. 98% win probability. #MarchMadness |
| mm26-w-r1-g7 | 1 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Missouri Tigers | Miami (FL) Hurricanes (#7) | 64.0% | Hurricanes bring an elite offensive glass attack (37.1% ORB) and senior leadership to face a Tigers squad that relies on the whistle. With Missouri on a 3-game skid, Miami’s balance and interior edge should prevail. 64% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g8 | 1 | Purdue Boilermakers vs Queens University Royals | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 98.0% | 98% win. Purdue’s #1 offense meets the nation’s #317 defense. With a massive size edge and elite rebounding, the Boilermakers are poised to feast on a Queens team that struggles to stop anyone. Total mismatch in the paint. |
| mm26-e-r2-g1 | 2 | Duke Blue Devils vs Ohio State Buckeyes | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 88.0% | Duke's #1 defense meets Ohio State's #12 offense in a heavyweight East Region clash. Cameron Boozer is the superstar, but Bruce Thornton can score with anyone. Duke's rebounding and depth provide the edge. 88% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r2-g2 | 2 | St. John's Red Storm vs Kansas Jayhawks | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 58.0% | St. John's is on fire after a 20-point blowout of UConn, while Kansas has stumbled down the stretch. With a massive edge in rebounding and foul-drawing, the Red Storm (58% win) look to overwhelm the Jayhawks inside. |
| mm26-e-r2-g3 | 2 | Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 62.0% | Elite shooting meets rebounding dominance. Louisville's 56.6% eFG and twin 18-PPG guards face a Michigan State squad with a top-10 WAB and a massive glass advantage (38.5% ORB). Spartans' strength of schedule seals a 62% win. |
| mm26-e-r2-g4 | 2 | UCLA Bruins vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 78.0% | UConn (78% win) brings an elite #11 defense and dominant rebounding to stifle UCLA's high-octane offense. While the Bruins protect the ball well, the Huskies' #5 WAB rank and interior length make them the heavy favorite. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g1 | 2 | Michigan Wolverines vs Georgia Bulldogs | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 88.0% | Michigan’s #2 defense vs Georgia’s #93 defense is the mismatch of the round. The Wolverines are top-5 on both ends and battle-tested with the #1 WAB. Expect the 7'3" Aday Mara to dominate the paint. 88% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g2 | 2 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide | Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5) | 58.0% | Texas Tech's #27 defense is the wildcard against Alabama’s #3 offense. With JT Toppin (21.8 PPG) cleaning the glass and Christian Anderson (7.6 APG) dealing, the Red Raiders have the edge in a high-speed clash. 58% win. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g3 | 2 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Cavaliers | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 58.0% | A statistical mirror image meets an efficiency juggernaut. Virginia (58% win) boasts superior shooting (55.1% eFG) and momentum, while Tennessee relies on a monstrous 45% offensive rebound rate. Expect a low-possession chess match. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g4 | 2 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 82.0% | Iowa State's #6 defense and elite +7.2% turnover margin face a battle-tested but inconsistent Kentucky squad. With Milan Momcilovic’s 67.9% eFG and a massive WAB gap, the Cyclones' 82% win probability is built on efficiency. |
| mm26-s-r2-g1 | 2 | Florida Gators vs Iowa Hawkeyes | Florida Gators (#1) | 82.0% | Florida’s elite glass-crashing (42.6% ORB%) meets Clemson’s sluggish tempo. With a Top 5 defense and Top 10 offense, the Gators are a statistical juggernaut. Clemson's 7 narrow escapes won't save them from the Gator size. 82% win. |
| mm26-s-r2-g2 | 2 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 58.0% | Vandy’s #11 offense meets Nebraska’s #7 defense in a classic clash of styles. The Commodores’ elite guard play and superior strength of schedule provide the edge in this South Region showdown. 58% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r2-g3 | 2 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs Illinois Fighting Illini | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 72.0% | Illinois brings the nation's #2 offense to face a UNC squad reeling from late-season losses. With a 39% offensive rebounding rate and elite efficiency, the Illini are built for a deep run. 72% win probability for the orange and blue. |
| mm26-s-r2-g4 | 2 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 82.0% | Houston's #5 defense meets Saint Mary's grind-it-out style in a tactical war. The Cougars' elite turnover margin (21% forced) and #14 ranked offense provide too much firepower for the Gaels. Houston 82% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r2-g1 | 2 | Arizona Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 89.0% | Arizona’s top-5 defense meets Utah State’s high-powered but porous perimeter. With a massive rebounding edge and elite efficiency on both ends, the Wildcats are primed to overpower the Aggies. 89% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r2-g2 | 2 | Wisconsin Badgers vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 58.0% | Arkansas (58% win) rides an SEC title high into a clash of offensive titans. While Wisconsin's backcourt is elite, the Razorbacks' superior eFG% and relentless rim pressure make them the smarter play in a West Region thriller. |
| mm26-w-r2-g3 | 2 | BYU Cougars vs Gonzaga Bulldogs | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 68.0% | Gonzaga 68% win. The Bulldogs' top-10 defense is the kryptonite for BYU’s explosive B12 offense. While AJ Dybantsa is the best pro prospect on the floor, Gonzaga’s elite efficiency and turnover margin create a gap too wide to bridge. |
| mm26-w-r2-g4 | 2 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 78.0% | Purdue’s #1 offense meets Miami’s elite glass-crashing attack. Braden Smith (9.1 APG) is the floor general the Boilermakers need to navigate a physical Miami squad. Purdue win probability: 78%. |
| mm26-e-r3-g1 | 3 | Duke Blue Devils vs St. John's Red Storm | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 78.0% | Duke's #1 defense and the unstoppable Cameron Boozer (22.5 PPG) face a red-hot St. John's squad fresh off a Big East title. The Blue Devils' efficiency advantage is massive, but the Johnnies' glass-crashing creates chaos. 78% win. |
| mm26-e-r3-g2 | 3 | Michigan State Spartans vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 62.0% | UConn's elite shot-making meets Michigan State's glass-crashing machine. The Huskies' #11 defense and perimeter balance give them the edge (62% win) over Jeremy Fears' playmaking in a high-stakes East Region clash. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g1 | 3 | Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 85.0% | Michigan brings an elite #2 defense and #4 offense to the Midwest. Texas Tech has the firepower with JT Toppin, but the Wolverines' size and #1 WAB dominance make them the heavy favorites. 85% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g2 | 3 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 65.0% | 65% win for Iowa St. A top-10 defensive showdown. The Cyclones’ elite ball pressure (22.2% TO rate) clashes with Virginia’s glass-eaters (37.5% ORB). Momcilovic’s 68% eFG provides the punch to overcome the UVA wall. |
| mm26-s-r3-g1 | 3 | Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt Commodores | Florida Gators (#1) | 62.0% | Florida’s #3 defense meets a Vanderbilt squad that just blew them out. The Gators' elite 42.6% ORB rate and #4 power rating suggest revenge. Expect a high-paced battle where Florida’s size eventually overwhelms the guards. 62% win. |
| mm26-s-r3-g2 | 3 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 58.0% | The nation's #2 offense meets a #5 defense in a tactical war. Houston's elite 21% forced turnover rate and #4 WAB rank provide the edge against Illinois' historic glass-crashing. 58% win for Houston. |
| mm26-w-r3-g1 | 3 | Arizona Wildcats vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 78.0% | Arizona brings a top-5 defense (91.1 AdjDE) to stifle Arkansas's high-octane attack. With a massive 37.7% offensive rebound rate and elite foul-drawing ability, the Wildcats (32-2) are title favorites. 78% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r3-g2 | 3 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 62.0% | Nation's #1 offense meets its match. Purdue (62% win) brings the hammer with Braden Smith’s elite playmaking and a brutal SOS. Gonzaga’s #9 defense is elite, but the Boilermakers' efficiency is the difference. 78-73 Purdue. |
| mm26-e-r4-g1 | 4 | Duke Blue Devils vs UConn Huskies | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 68.0% | Duke's #1 defense meets UConn's balanced attack in a heavyweight clash. With Cameron Boozer (22.5 PPG) dominating the glass and the nation's best overall efficiency, Duke holds a 68% win probability. 74-68 Blue Devils. |
| mm26-mw-r4-g1 | 4 | Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa State Cyclones | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 68.0% | Michigan brings the #2 defense and #4 offense to battle an elite Iowa St. turnover machine. The Wolverines' 7'3" Aday Mara and #1 WAB prove too much for the Cyclones in a high-efficiency Midwest clash. 68% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r4-g1 | 4 | Florida Gators vs Houston Cougars | Florida Gators (#1) | 58.0% | Elite rebounding meets turnover pressure. Florida's #3 defense and 42.6% ORB rate give them the edge over Houston's slow-burn efficiency. A clash of giants where second chances decide the Final Four ticket. 58% win. |
| mm26-w-r4-g1 | 4 | Arizona Wildcats vs Purdue Boilermakers | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 68.0% | Arizona's #4 defense meets Purdue's #1 offense in a heavyweight clash. The Wildcats' elite rebounding and massive 44.1 free throw rate give them the edge over the Boilers. 68% win probability for the desert cats. |
| mm26-ff-g1 | 5 | Duke Blue Devils vs Arizona Wildcats | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 54.0% | The nation's #1 defense meets a high-octane B12 juggernaut. Cameron Boozer (22.5 PPG) is the most dominant force on the floor, giving the Blue Devils a razor-thin edge in this heavyweight clash. 54% win. |
| mm26-ff-g2 | 5 | Florida Gators vs Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 58.0% | Michigan's #4 offense and #2 defense collide with Florida's elite glass-crashing. The Wolverines' 58% eFG and #1 WAB rank give them the edge in this heavyweight clash. 58% win probability. |
| mm26-championship | 6 | Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan Wolverines | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 54.0% | A clash of titans: Duke vs Michigan. Duke carries the nation's #1 defense and a prior H2H win into this battle of 1-seeds. Can Michigan's elite eFG% solve Cameron Boozer? Duke 54% win. |