2026 National Championship
Gemini 3.1 Pro Bracket
Premium analysis with latest reasoning
Window: Tournament Start
Leaderboard Rank
—
Score
0
Correct Picks
0
Predictions
63
Submission Window
Models
| Game | Round | Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm26-e-r1-g1 | 1 | Duke Blue Devils vs Siena Saints | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 99.0% | Duke enters as a juggernaut with the nation's best defense and an elite offense, led by Cameron Boozer. Siena had a great MAAC run, but the talent gap here is insurmountable. 99% win. |
| mm26-e-r1-g2 | 1 | Ohio State Buckeyes vs TCU Horned Frogs | Ohio State Buckeyes (#8) | 72.0% | Ohio State's elite top-15 offense (125.2 AdjOE) led by Bruce Thornton will be too much firepower for TCU to match. The Horned Frogs struggle to score efficiently, giving the Buckeyes a 72% chance to advance in a clash of styles. |
| mm26-e-r1-g3 | 1 | St. John's Red Storm vs Northern Iowa Panthers | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 85.0% | St. John's elite defense and offensive rebounding will overwhelm Northern Iowa. The Red Storm have a massive edge in shot volume and free throw rate. Expect SJU to dictate the tempo and advance with an 85% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r1-g4 | 1 | Kansas Jayhawks vs Cal Baptist Lancers | Kansas Jayhawks (#4) | 93.0% | The Kansas defense (94.4 AdjDE) meets a turnover-prone Cal Baptist offense. While Dominique Daniels Jr. can score with anyone, the Jayhawks are too deep and battle-tested for the Lancers. 93% win probability for Kansas. |
| mm26-e-r1-g5 | 1 | Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida Bulls | Louisville Cardinals (#6) | 80.0% | Louisville's elite top-25 offense meets South Florida's blazing 11-game win streak. The Bulls crash the glass hard, but the Cardinals' battle-tested ACC resume and superior shooting efficiency give them an 80% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r1-g6 | 1 | Michigan State Spartans vs North Dakota State Bison | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 91.0% | Michigan State's top-30 offense meets a vulnerable NDSU defense. The Spartans' massive rebounding edge and battle-tested roster give them a 91% chance to roll into the weekend. |
| mm26-e-r1-g7 | 1 | UCLA Bruins vs UCF Knights | UCLA Bruins (#7) | 75.0% | UCLA's elite offense (124.7 AdjOE) meets a very suspect UCF defense (105.7 AdjDE). The Bruins protect the ball and score efficiently, while UCF struggles to get stops. Look for UCLA to control the pace. 75% win probability for UCLA. |
| mm26-e-r1-g8 | 1 | UConn Huskies vs Furman Paladins | UConn Huskies (#2) | 98.0% | UConn's elite two-way efficiency meets Furman's Cinderella dreams. The Huskies' overwhelming size and suffocating defense will be too much for the Paladins to handle in a slow-paced clash. Expect a methodical blowout. 98% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g1 | 1 | Michigan Wolverines vs UMBC/Howard | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 100.0% | Michigan Wolverines advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g2 | 1 | Georgia Bulldogs vs Saint Louis Billikens | Georgia Bulldogs (#8) | 54.0% | Georgia's SEC-tested offense (124.4 AdjOE) clashes with Saint Louis's stifling defense in a fast-paced battle. The Bulldogs' battle-tested resume gives them a slight edge on the glass. 54% win probability for the Bulldogs. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g3 | 1 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Akron Zips | Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5) | 85.0% | Texas Tech brings an elite Top 10 offense and battle-tested B12 pedigree against a red-hot Akron squad riding a 10-game streak. The Red Raiders' overwhelming efficiency makes them heavy favorites (85% win). |
| mm26-mw-r1-g4 | 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide vs Hofstra Pride | Alabama Crimson Tide (#4) | 88.0% | Alabama's elite #3 ranked offense clashes with Hofstra's grinding style. The Crimson Tide are battle-tested and their blistering 73.0 tempo will likely overwhelm the Pride in this matchup, projecting an 88% win. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g5 | 1 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Miami (OH)/SMU | Tennessee Volunteers (#6) | 100.0% | Tennessee Volunteers advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g6 | 1 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Wright State Raiders | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 92.0% | Virginia's elite defense (95.6 AdjDE) and battle-tested resume are a nightmare for a Wright St. team stepping way up in class. The Cavaliers will dictate the pace and dominate the glass. Virginia advances with a 92% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g7 | 1 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Santa Clara Broncos | Santa Clara Broncos (#10) | 52.0% | Santa Clara's elite top-15 offense clashes with Kentucky's battle-tested SEC defense. The Broncos' shooting efficiency and ability to force chaotic turnovers give them a slight 52% win probability in this matchup. Expect a shootout. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g8 | 1 | Iowa State Cyclones vs Tennessee State Tigers | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 98.0% | Iowa State's suffocating top-10 defense and lethal efficiency will overwhelm Tennessee State. The massive gap in strength of schedule and raw talent makes this a severe mismatch. Cyclones roll comfortably. 98% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r1-g1 | 1 | Florida Gators vs Prairie View A&M/Lehigh | Florida Gators (#1) | 100.0% | Florida Gators advances |
| mm26-s-r1-g2 | 1 | Clemson Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes | Iowa Hawkeyes (#9) | 53.0% | Elite offense meets elite defense. Iowa's scorching 56.7% eFG% takes on Clemson's stingy 96.9 AdjDE. The Hawkeyes' ability to force turnovers gives them the slight edge in a 8/9 matchup coin-flip. (53% win) |
| mm26-s-r1-g3 | 1 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs McNeese Cowboys | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 85.0% | Vanderbilt's elite top-15 offense meets a turnover-reliant McNeese defense. The Commodores protect the ball too well to fall into the trap, giving them an 85% chance to overpower the Cowboys and advance. |
| mm26-s-r1-g4 | 1 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Troy Trojans | Nebraska Cornhuskers (#4) | 94.0% | Nebraska's suffocating top-10 defense meets a Troy squad that relies heavily on the offensive glass. The battle-tested Cornhuskers will stifle the Trojans' inside game and score at will. 94% win probability for Nebraska. |
| mm26-s-r1-g5 | 1 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs VCU Rams | North Carolina Tar Heels (#6) | 73.0% | North Carolina's elite two-way efficiency (top 35 offense and defense) and battle-tested ACC resume makes them a heavy favorite against a hot VCU squad. The Tar Heels' size advantage inside should overwhelm the Rams. 73% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r1-g6 | 1 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn Quakers | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 98.0% | Illinois boasts the #2 offense in the country and dominates the glass. Penn plays fast but lacks the defensive chops to slow down the Illini. Expect a blowout as Illinois cruises. 98% win probability for the Illini. |
| mm26-s-r1-g7 | 1 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Texas A&M Aggies | Saint Mary's Gaels (#7) | 62.0% | Saint Mary's slow, grinding, elite defense (97.6 AdjDE) takes on Texas A&M's high-octane offense. The Gaels' discipline and rebounding should control the tempo and limit the Aggies' second chances. 62% win. |
| mm26-s-r1-g8 | 1 | Houston Cougars vs Idaho Vandals | Houston Cougars (#2) | 98.0% | Houston's suffocating top-5 defense and elite execution meets a red-hot Idaho squad. The Vandals stole a bid with 5 straight wins, but the Cougars' overwhelming physicality and 98% win probability make this a nightmare matchup. |
| mm26-w-r1-g1 | 1 | Arizona Wildcats vs LIU Sharks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 99.0% | Arizona's elite top-10 offense and top-5 defense create a nightmare matchup for LIU. The Wildcats dominate the glass and draw fouls at an incredibly high rate. Expect a massive blowout as Arizona cruises to a 99% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g2 | 1 | Villanova Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Utah State Aggies (#9) | 52.0% | Utah State's elite offense meets Villanova's battle-tested defense in a classic clash of styles. The Aggies' red-hot shooting and momentum from a Mountain West title run give them a slight 52% edge over the Wildcats. |
| mm26-w-r1-g3 | 1 | Wisconsin Badgers vs High Point Panthers | Wisconsin Badgers (#5) | 83.0% | Wisconsin's elite #7 offense meets a High Point defense ranked 148th. The Panthers force turnovers and live at the foul line, but the Badgers are too battle-tested and secure with the ball. 83% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r1-g4 | 1 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 92.0% | Arkansas boasts an elite top-10 offense that will overwhelm Hawaii's untested defense. The Razorbacks' battle-tested SEC pedigree makes them a near lock here. 92% win probability for the Hogs to roll. |
| mm26-w-r1-g5 | 1 | BYU Cougars vs Texas/NC State | BYU Cougars (#6) | 100.0% | BYU Cougars advances |
| mm26-w-r1-g6 | 1 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Kennesaw State Owls | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 96.0% | Gonzaga's elite two-way efficiency (AdjDE #9) and massive frontcourt advantage will overwhelm Kennesaw State. The Owls' defense (#199) can't stop Graham Ike inside. 96% win probability for the Zags in a blowout. |
| mm26-w-r1-g7 | 1 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Missouri Tigers | Miami (FL) Hurricanes (#7) | 61.0% | Miami's high-powered offense and significant rebounding edge give them the upper hand. With Missouri limping in on a three-game losing streak, expect the Hurricanes' depth and efficiency to prevail. 61% win probability for Miami. |
| mm26-w-r1-g8 | 1 | Purdue Boilermakers vs Queens University Royals | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 98.0% | Purdue boasts the nation's #1 offense and a dominant interior presence. Queens plays fast and gets to the line, but their #317 defense is a glaring weakness against an elite attack. Purdue advances with a 98% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r2-g1 | 2 | Duke Blue Devils vs Ohio State Buckeyes | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 88.0% | Duke's elite #1 defense and dominant rebounding edge give them an 88% win probability. Ohio State's explosive offense will face its toughest test yet against the Blue Devils' stifling length and size in the paint. |
| mm26-e-r2-g2 | 2 | St. John's Red Storm vs Kansas Jayhawks | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 65.0% | St. John's rides massive momentum and elite defensive pressure into a clash with a stumbling Kansas squad. With a 65% win probability, the Red Storm's ability to dominate the glass and win the turnover battle will be the difference. |
| mm26-e-r2-g3 | 2 | Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 58.0% | Michigan State's battle-tested defense and relentless offensive rebounding crash into Louisville's high-powered scoring attack. The Spartans' physicality and control of the glass give them the edge to grind out a gritty 58% win. |
| mm26-e-r2-g4 | 2 | UCLA Bruins vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 76.0% | UConn's elite two-way balance (#11 defense, #20 offense) meets UCLA's high-octane attack. The Huskies' suffocating eFG% defense (45.6%) and rebounding advantage give them a 76% win probability over the Bruins in this tempo-matched duel. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g1 | 2 | Michigan Wolverines vs Georgia Bulldogs | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 92.0% | Michigan's elite two-way dominance meets a Georgia squad that can score but struggles to defend. With a top-5 offense and defense, the Wolverines are heavily favored to overwhelm the Bulldogs in this matchup. 92% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g2 | 2 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide | Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5) | 53.0% | A clash of styles: Alabama's blazing elite offense meets Texas Tech's gritty defense. The Red Raiders' edge in overall efficiency and half-court execution gives them a 53% win probability in a tightly contested battle. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g3 | 2 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Cavaliers | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 52.0% | A classic grind-out game. Virginia's efficient offense meets Tennessee's elite offensive rebounding and battle-tested defense. Expect a slow pace where every possession counts. Cavaliers edge it out with better shooting. 52% win. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g4 | 2 | Santa Clara Broncos vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 85.0% | Iowa State's suffocating top-10 defense meets Santa Clara's high-octane offense. The Cyclones' distinct edge in forcing turnovers and drawing fouls makes them a heavy favorite in this clash of styles. 85% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r2-g1 | 2 | Florida Gators vs Iowa Hawkeyes | Florida Gators (#1) | 88.0% | Florida’s elite two-way efficiency (AdjOE #10, AdjDE #3) and massive rebounding edge should overwhelm an Iowa squad struggling down the stretch. Gators dominate the glass to secure an 88% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r2-g2 | 2 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 53.0% | Elite offense meets elite defense! Vanderbilt's high-octane attack clashes with Nebraska's stingy D. The Commodores' battle-tested resume gives them the edge to dictate tempo. Vandy with a 53% win probability to advance. |
| mm26-s-r2-g3 | 2 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs Illinois Fighting Illini | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 78.0% | Illinois boasts the nation's #2 offense and terrifying size. UNC can score, but they'll be crushed on the glass. The Illini's elite efficiency gives them a 78% win probability in this matchup. |
| mm26-s-r2-g4 | 2 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 78.0% | Houston’s suffocating defense (#5) meets Saint Mary's rugged rebounding in a slow-paced brawl. The Cougars hold a massive edge in turnover margin and schedule strength. Look for Houston to grind out a gritty victory. 78% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r2-g1 | 2 | Arizona Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 88.0% | Arizona is an elite two-way machine with a top-10 offense and defense. Utah State boasts a potent offense but lacks the defensive chops to slow down the Wildcats' attack. Look for Arizona to dominate the glass. (88% win) |
| mm26-w-r2-g2 | 2 | Wisconsin Badgers vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 58.0% | Arkansas's high-octane offense (127.8 AdjOE) and faster pace give them a slight edge over a very similar Wisconsin squad. The Razorbacks attack the glass and get to the line better. Give me Arkansas with a 58% win probability in a shootout. |
| mm26-w-r2-g3 | 2 | BYU Cougars vs Gonzaga Bulldogs | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 78.0% | Gonzaga's elite defense (AdjDE #9) meets BYU's high-powered offense (AdjOE #16). The Zags' ability to force turnovers and control the glass gives them a distinct edge in this clash of styles. Gonzaga boasts a 78% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r2-g4 | 2 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 85.0% | Purdue's #1 ranked offense is a buzzsaw, boasting elite shooting and taking care of the ball. Miami likes to run and crash the glass, but the Boilermakers' battle-tested resume makes them heavy favorites. 85% win probability for Purdue. |
| mm26-e-r3-g1 | 3 | Duke Blue Devils vs St. John's Red Storm | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 85.0% | Duke's #1 defense and elite efficiency meet a surging St. John's squad fresh off a Big East title. The Red Storm push the pace, but the Blue Devils' size and discipline make them heavy favorites. 85% win probability for Duke. |
| mm26-e-r3-g2 | 3 | Michigan State Spartans vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 62.0% | UConn's elite two-way efficiency meets Michigan State's relentless rebounding and foul-drawing. The Huskies' superior shot-making gives them a 62% win probability, but the Spartans' physical play could turn this into a grinder. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g1 | 3 | Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 82.0% | Michigan's elite two-way efficiency meets a reeling Texas Tech squad that lost its last three. The Wolverines' stifling interior defense and relentless pace should overwhelm the Red Raiders. 82% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g2 | 3 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 65.0% | Iowa State's elite top-10 defense and ability to force turnovers will overwhelm Virginia. The Cyclones boast a more efficient offense and a stronger resume against tougher competition. Look for ISU to dictate the pace. (65% win) |
| mm26-s-r3-g1 | 3 | Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt Commodores | Florida Gators (#1) | 74.0% | Florida's elite defense and offensive rebounding edge out Vanderbilt's sharpshooting. Expect a high-scoring battle, but the Gators control the glass to advance. 74% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r3-g2 | 3 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 53.0% | An elite offense meets a suffocating defense as the Illini try to crack the Cougars' armor. Houston's pressure gives them a slight edge in a true heavyweight fight. 53% win for Houston. |
| mm26-w-r3-g1 | 3 | Arizona Wildcats vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 82.0% | Arizona's elite defense and rebounding edge make them an 82% favorite in this high-octane matchup. Arkansas brings a potent offense led by Darius Acuff Jr., but the Wildcats' interior dominance and top-5 defense will prove too much. |
| mm26-w-r3-g2 | 3 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 65.0% | Purdue's historic #1 offense (132.5 AdjO) meets Gonzaga's stout top-10 defense. The battle-tested Boilermakers navigate a tempo clash against the Zags to advance. 65% win probability for Purdue. |
| mm26-e-r4-g1 | 4 | Duke Blue Devils vs UConn Huskies | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 78.0% | Duke is a buzzsaw. With the top defense and a top-5 offense, they overpower opponents inside. Connecticut is great, but Duke's elite rebounding and discipline give them the clear edge here. 78% win probability for the Blue Devils. |
| mm26-mw-r4-g1 | 4 | Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa State Cyclones | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 75.0% | Michigan's elite two-way efficiency (Off #4, Def #2) meets Iowa State's stifling turnover-driven defense. The Wolverines' lethal 58% eFG and significant SOS edge give them the upper hand. Michigan has a 75% win probability to advance. |
| mm26-s-r4-g1 | 4 | Florida Gators vs Houston Cougars | Florida Gators (#1) | 55.0% | Florida's relentless pace and elite rebounding edge out Houston's grinding defense in a clash of titans. The Gators' 42.6% offensive rebounding rate is the difference maker. Florida advances with a 55% win probability. |
| mm26-w-r4-g1 | 4 | Arizona Wildcats vs Purdue Boilermakers | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 64.0% | The nation's top offense meets an elite two-way juggernaut. Purdue looks to dissect a suffocating Arizona defense, but the Wildcats' massive free-throw and rebounding advantages give them a 64% win probability to advance. |
| mm26-ff-g1 | 5 | Duke Blue Devils vs Arizona Wildcats | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 58.0% | Duke's stifling defense and surgical half-court execution give them the slight edge in this clash of titans. With a 58% win probability, expect the Blue Devils to control the tempo and survive Arizona's relentless physical attack. |
| mm26-ff-g2 | 5 | Florida Gators vs Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 58.0% | Michigan's elite shooting (58% eFG) and battle-tested resume edge out Florida's relentless offensive glass in a clash of titans. The Wolverines' ability to defend without fouling is the difference. 58% win probability for Michigan. |
| mm26-championship | 6 | Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan Wolverines | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 52.0% | A clash of titans: #1 defense Duke takes on #4 offense Michigan in a rematch of their February thriller. The Blue Devils won that neutral-site battle 68-63, and their elite rebounding gives them a 52% win probability to repeat history. |