2026 National Championship

GLM 4.5 Air Bracket

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Window: Tournament Start

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GameRoundMatchupPickConfidenceRationale
mm26-e-r1-g11Duke Blue Devils vs Siena SaintsDuke Blue Devils (#1)95.0%Duke's elite defense stifles Siena's mediocre offense. Blue Devils overwhelm with size and efficiency, 95% win.
mm26-e-r1-g21Ohio State Buckeyes vs TCU Horned FrogsOhio State Buckeyes (#8)72.0%Ohio State's elite offense (125.2 AdjOE) vs TCU's defense (99.6 AdjDE). High-powered Buckeyes overcome Horned Frogs' toughness. 72% win
mm26-e-r1-g31St. John's Red Storm vs Northern Iowa PanthersSt. John's Red Storm (#5)88.0%St. John's defense stifles Northern Iowa's offense. Red Storm dominate with 88% win probability, Elite D vs #151 O clash.
mm26-e-r1-g41Kansas Jayhawks vs Cal Baptist LancersKansas Jayhawks (#4)85.0%Kansas's elite defense stifles Cal Baptist's inefficient offense. Jayhawks control tempo and dominate inside with Bidunga. 78% win.
mm26-e-r1-g51Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida BullsLouisville Cardinals (#6)75.0%Louisville's elite efficiency (AdjOE #23, AdjDE #24) overcomes South Florida's weaker schedule. Cardinals win 73-68, 75% confidence.
mm26-e-r1-g61Michigan State Spartans vs North Dakota State BisonMichigan State Spartans (#3)90.0%Michigan State's elite defense and strong schedule edge over North Dakota State's weaker opponents gives them 90% win probability.
mm26-e-r1-g71UCLA Bruins vs UCF KnightsUCLA Bruins (#7)85.0%UCLA's high-powered offense (rank #17) should exploit UCF's porous defense (rank #112) in this matchup. Bruins win 78-67.
mm26-e-r1-g81UConn Huskies vs Furman PaladinsUConn Huskies (#2)92.0%Connecticut's dominant defense and balanced offense overwhelm Furman's inefficient attack. Huskies win 88-67 with 92% confidence.
mm26-mw-r1-g11Michigan Wolverines vs UMBC/HowardMichigan Wolverines (#1)100.0%Michigan Wolverines advances
mm26-mw-r1-g21Georgia Bulldogs vs Saint Louis BillikensGeorgia Bulldogs (#8)55.0%Georgia's high-powered offense (124.4 AdjOE) edges Saint Louis' defense (102.3 AdjDE) in this matchup. Georgia wins 55% of the time.
mm26-mw-r1-g31Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Akron ZipsTexas Tech Red Raiders (#5)75.0%Texas Tech's elite defense and tough schedule overwhelm Akron's weaker competition. Red Raiders prevail 74%.
mm26-mw-r1-g41Alabama Crimson Tide vs Hofstra PrideAlabama Crimson Tide (#4)78.0%Alabama's high-octane offense (129.5 AdjOE) overwhelms Hofstra's weaker defense (104.9 AdjDE). Crimson Tide favored 78% to advance.
mm26-mw-r1-g51Tennessee Volunteers vs Miami (OH)/SMUTennessee Volunteers (#6)100.0%Tennessee Volunteers advances
mm26-mw-r1-g61Virginia Cavaliers vs Wright State RaidersVirginia Cavaliers (#3)88.0%Virginia's elite defense and high-powered offense overwhelm Wright St. 88% win.
mm26-mw-r1-g71Kentucky Wildcats vs Santa Clara BroncosKentucky Wildcats (#7)65.0%Santa Clara's high-octane offense meets Kentucky's stifling defense. Kentucky's tougher schedule gives them the edge in this matchup, 65% win.
mm26-mw-r1-g81Iowa State Cyclones vs Tennessee State TigersIowa State Cyclones (#2)95.0%Iowa St.'s elite defense stifles Tennessee St.'s mediocre offense in a potential rout. 95% win probability.
mm26-s-r1-g11Florida Gators vs Prairie View A&M/LehighFlorida Gators (#1)100.0%Florida Gators advances
mm26-s-r1-g21Clemson Tigers vs Iowa HawkeyesClemson Tigers (#8)63.0%Clemson's stifling defense meets Iowa's potent offense. Tigers win 63% of the time by making it a defensive battle in the 8-9 matchup.
mm26-s-r1-g31Vanderbilt Commodores vs McNeese CowboysVanderbilt Commodores (#5)83.0%Vanderbilt's high-octane offense (AdjOE #11) overwhelms McNeese's weaker defense. 83% win.
mm26-s-r1-g41Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Troy TrojansNebraska Cornhuskers (#4)85.0%Elite defense meets inefficient offense. Nebraska's top-7 defense should stifle Troy's bottom-third offense. 85% win for Cornhuskers.
mm26-s-r1-g51North Carolina Tar Heels vs VCU RamsNorth Carolina Tar Heels (#6)75.0%North Carolina's balanced attack (121.5 AdjOE) overcomes VCU's weaker defense (104.0 AdjDE). Tar Heels win 76-72 with Veesaar dominating inside.
mm26-s-r1-g61Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn QuakersIllinois Fighting Illini (#3)92.0%Illinois's elite offense (#2 AdjOE) overwhelms Penn's limited attack (#209 AdjOE). Fighting Illini win 85-68, 92% chance.
mm26-s-r1-g71Saint Mary's Gaels vs Texas A&M AggiesSaint Mary's Gaels (#7)65.0%Saint Mary's stifling defense (22nd) meets Texas A&M's inconsistent offense. Gaels control tempo, win 65% despite Aggies' SEC toughness.
mm26-s-r1-g81Houston Cougars vs Idaho VandalsHouston Cougars (#2)93.0%Houston's elite defense vs Idaho's mediocre offense: Cougars dominate with 93% win probability. Slow tempo stifles Vandals' upstart hopes.
mm26-w-r1-g11Arizona Wildcats vs LIU SharksArizona Wildcats (#1)95.0%Arizona's elite defense stifles LIU's struggling offense. Wildcats dominate 86-64 with 95% win probability.
mm26-w-r1-g21Villanova Wildcats vs Utah State AggiesUtah State Aggies (#9)62.0%Utah State's superior offensive efficiency (122.9) overcomes Villanova's defensive strength (100.4) in a close matchup. Aggies win 62%.
mm26-w-r1-g31Wisconsin Badgers vs High Point PanthersWisconsin Badgers (#5)78.0%Wisconsin's high-octane offense (127.6 AdjOE) should overwhelm High Point's porous defense (107.5 AdjDE). Badgers win 78%.
mm26-w-r1-g41Arkansas Razorbacks vs Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsArkansas Razorbacks (#4)85.0%Arkansas's elite offense (127.8 AdjOE) overwhelmed Hawaii's weaker defense. 85% win.
mm26-w-r1-g51BYU Cougars vs Texas/NC StateBYU Cougars (#6)100.0%BYU Cougars advances
mm26-w-r1-g61Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Kennesaw State OwlsGonzaga Bulldogs (#3)92.0%Gonzaga's top-10 defense stifles Kennesaw's 135th-ranked offense. Bulldogs dominate tempo and efficiency in 75-68 win.
mm26-w-r1-g71Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Missouri TigersMiami (FL) Hurricanes (#7)68.0%Miami's balanced attack (121.1 AdjOE) overwhelms Missouri's weaker defense (103.0 AdjDE). Hurricanes hold 65% win probability with superior efficiency ratings and more quality wins.
mm26-w-r1-g81Purdue Boilermakers vs Queens University RoyalsPurdue Boilermakers (#2)92.0%Purdue's elite offense (#1 AdjOE) overwhelms Queens' porous defense (#317 AdjDE). Expect a high-scoring affair with Purdue's efficiency dictating the pace.
mm26-e-r2-g12Duke Blue Devils vs Ohio State BuckeyesDuke Blue Devils (#1)82.0%Duke's elite defense meets Ohio State's solid offense. Blue Devils win 82-70, 82% chance.
mm26-e-r2-g22St. John's Red Storm vs Kansas JayhawksSt. John's Red Storm (#5)60.0%St. John's stifling defense meets Kansas in a battle of top-10 defenses. Red Storm's high-octane offense edges Kansas 58% win.
mm26-e-r2-g32Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans (#3)65.0%Michigan St.'s superior defense and stronger schedule edge out Louisville's high-octane offense in a close East Region battle. 65% win for the Spartans.
mm26-e-r2-g42UCLA Bruins vs UConn HuskiesUConn Huskies (#2)75.0%UConn's elite defense matches UCLA's high-octane offense in a battle of contrasting styles. Huskies' defensive prowess gives them a slight edge in this East Region showdown.
mm26-mw-r2-g12Michigan Wolverines vs Georgia BulldogsMichigan Wolverines (#1)76.0%Michigan's elite defense and SOS overwhelm Georgia's offense. Wolverines win 78-65, 76% chance.
mm26-mw-r2-g22Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson TideAlabama Crimson Tide (#4)61.0%Alabama's elite offense (#3) meets Texas Tech's defense (#27). Crimson Tide's tempo advantage gives them 61% win probability in a potential 78-72 thriller.
mm26-mw-r2-g32Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia CavaliersVirginia Cavaliers (#3)55.0%Virginia Cavaliers hold a slight edge (55% win) in a statistical dead heat between evenly-matched teams with nearly identical defensive prowess.
mm26-mw-r2-g42Kentucky Wildcats vs Iowa State CyclonesIowa State Cyclones (#2)85.0%Iowa State's elite defense (AdjDE #6) meets Kentucky's inconsistent offense. Cyclones win 82-75, 85% confidence.
mm26-s-r2-g12Florida Gators vs Clemson TigersFlorida Gators (#1)78.0%Florida's elite defense and high-octane offense overwhelm Clemson, 78% win probability. Gators' top-10 attack stifles Tigers' mediocre scoring.
mm26-s-r2-g22Vanderbilt Commodores vs Nebraska CornhuskersNebraska Cornhuskers (#4)75.0%Nebraska's elite defense (AdjDE #7) stifles Vanderbilt's potent offense (AdjOE #11). Cornhuskers take it 75-71 with defensive pressure.
mm26-s-r2-g32North Carolina Tar Heels vs Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois Fighting Illini (#3)68.0%Illinois' elite offense (#2) overwhelms UNC's balanced attack. Fighting Illini edge with 68% win probability.
mm26-s-r2-g42Saint Mary's Gaels vs Houston CougarsHouston Cougars (#2)78.0%Houston's elite defense (#5 nationally) stifles Saint Mary's offense, giving the Cougars a 78% win probability despite the seed difference.
mm26-w-r2-g12Arizona Wildcats vs Utah State AggiesArizona Wildcats (#1)92.0%Elite defense meets solid offense as Arizona's high-powered attack (126.3 AdjOE) looks to exploit Utah State's vulnerabilities (102.3 AdjDE). 75% win.
mm26-w-r2-g22Wisconsin Badgers vs Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks (#4)58.0%Arkansas Razorbacks edge Wisconsin in high-efficiency battle. Razorbacks' superior defense and balanced attack give them 58% win probability in a tight contest.
mm26-w-r2-g32BYU Cougars vs Gonzaga BulldogsGonzaga Bulldogs (#3)78.0%Gonzaga's elite defense stifles BYU's high-powered offense in a defensive showdown. 72% win.
mm26-w-r2-g42Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Purdue BoilermakersPurdue Boilermakers (#2)78.0%Purdue's elite offense (#1 AdjOE) vs Miami's solid defense (#45 AdjDE) creates a compelling contrast. Purdue wins 78% of simulations.
mm26-e-r3-g13Duke Blue Devils vs St. John's Red StormDuke Blue Devils (#1)92.0%85%: Duke's elite defense stifles St. John's offense in the half-court
mm26-e-r3-g23Michigan State Spartans vs UConn HuskiesUConn Huskies (#2)58.0%UConn's superior offense edges Michigan State's tough defense in a Big Ten-Big East showdown. UConn wins 54-49 (58% win).
mm26-mw-r3-g13Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson TideMichigan Wolverines (#1)85.0%Michigan's elite defense stifles Alabama's high-powered offense. 85% chance for Wolverines to advance.
mm26-mw-r3-g23Virginia Cavaliers vs Iowa State CyclonesIowa State Cyclones (#2)60.0%Iowa State's elite defense and balanced attack gives them the edge in this Midwest Region matchup, with a 60% probability of advancing past Virginia.
mm26-s-r3-g13Florida Gators vs Nebraska CornhuskersFlorida Gators (#1)65.0%Florida's elite offense (126.1 AdjOE) vs Nebraska's stingy D (93.4 AdjDE). Gators take 65% win despite Huskers' 20-game streak.
mm26-s-r3-g23Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston CougarsHouston Cougars (#2)60.0%Houston's elite defense (#5 AdjDE) counters Illinois's high-powered offense (#2 AdjOE) in a battle of styles. Houston edges it 60-40 with stifling defense.
mm26-w-r3-g13Arizona Wildcats vs Arkansas RazorbacksArizona Wildcats (#1)75.0%Arkansas' elite offense (127.8 AdjOE) vs Arizona's stifling defense (91.1 AdjDE). Razorbacks have firepower but Wildcats' top-tier D prevails 72% win.
mm26-w-r3-g23Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue BoilermakersPurdue Boilermakers (#2)65.0%Purdue's elite offense (#1 AdjOE) overpowers Gonzaga's defense. Boilermakers take this 65% win.
mm26-e-r4-g14Duke Blue Devils vs UConn HuskiesDuke Blue Devils (#1)85.0%Duke's elite defense and high-efficiency offense overwhelm UConn. Blue Devils win 78-69 with 85% confidence.
mm26-mw-r4-g14Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa State CyclonesMichigan Wolverines (#1)62.0%Michigan's elite offense meets Iowa State's tough defense in a clash of styles. Wolverines' high-octane attack (128.5 AdjOE) overwhelms Cyclones' slower tempo, giving Michigan 62% win probability.
mm26-s-r4-g14Florida Gators vs Houston CougarsFlorida Gators (#1)54.0%Florida edges Houston in efficiency battle: Gators control tempo with top-10 offense, 55% win chance
mm26-w-r4-g14Arizona Wildcats vs Purdue BoilermakersArizona Wildcats (#1)57.0%Arizona's elite defense (#4 AdjDE) meets Purdue's elite offense (#1 AdjOE). Wildcats' balanced attack and better defense give them edge in this 1 vs. 2 matchup. 57% win.
mm26-ff-g15Duke Blue Devils vs Arizona WildcatsDuke Blue Devils (#1)58.0%Duke's elite defense (90.1 AdjDE) vs. Arizona's 23-game win streak. Duke 58% win chance.
mm26-ff-g25Florida Gators vs Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines (#1)92.0%Michigan's superior efficiency (128.5 AdjOE, 0.9818 Barthag) vs Florida's elite defense (91.0 AdjDE). Wolverines' 14-game streak and clutch wins gives them 68% win probability.
mm26-championship6Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan WolverinesDuke Blue Devils (#1)55.0%Duke's elite defense meets Michigan's balanced attack. Duke 55% win chance in defensive battle.