2026 National Championship
GLM 5 Bracket
Zhipu's latest generation model
Window: Tournament Start
Leaderboard Rank
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Correct Picks
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Predictions
63
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| Game | Round | Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm26-e-r1-g1 | 1 | Duke Blue Devils vs Siena Saints | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 99.0% | Duke's #1 defense and Cameron Boozer face a Siena team that lost to Merrimack twice. The Blue Devils are a monumental 99% win favorite in this East Region mismatch. |
| mm26-e-r1-g2 | 1 | Ohio State Buckeyes vs TCU Horned Frogs | Ohio State Buckeyes (#8) | 62.0% | Ohio State's elite offense (#12 AdjOE) faces TCU's ball-hawking defense (19.7% TO%) in a classic O-vs-D clash. Buckeyes have the star power and efficiency edge. 62% win for Ohio State. |
| mm26-e-r1-g3 | 1 | St. John's Red Storm vs Northern Iowa Panthers | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 77.0% | St. John's elite defense (#12 nationally) and offensive rebounding machine face a Northern Iowa squad with elite shooting but minimal quality wins. Red Storm win probability: 77%. Defense + rebounding = advancement. |
| mm26-e-r1-g4 | 1 | Kansas Jayhawks vs Cal Baptist Lancers | Kansas Jayhawks (#4) | 87.0% | Kansas enters as a defensive juggernaut (#10 AdjDE) facing a Cal Baptist squad that feasts on offensive boards but hasn't seen anything close to Big 12 talent. 87% win probability for the Jayhawks. |
| mm26-e-r1-g5 | 1 | Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida Bulls | Louisville Cardinals (#6) | 73.0% | Louisville's top-25 efficiency on both ends faces a South Florida squad that crashes the glass relentlessly. Cardinals have faced real battles — Bulls haven't. 73% win for Louisville. |
| mm26-e-r1-g6 | 1 | Michigan State Spartans vs North Dakota State Bison | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 91.0% | Michigan St. brings elite defense and dominance on the glass against a North Dakota St. squad that feasted on weak competition. The Spartans own a 91% win probability — their top-15 defense and offensive rebounding machine will suffocate the Bison. |
| mm26-e-r1-g7 | 1 | UCLA Bruins vs UCF Knights | UCLA Bruins (#7) | 68.0% | UCLA's elite offense (#17 AdjOE) clamps down on UCF's porous defense (#112 AdjDE) — Bruins win 68%. Tempo battle, turnover margin, and UCLA's ball security are the deciding factors. |
| mm26-e-r1-g8 | 1 | UConn Huskies vs Furman Paladins | UConn Huskies (#2) | 92.0% | Connecticut enters as a juggernaut with a 92% win probability. Their elite defense (94.6 AdjDE) faces a Furman squad that's been outscored by mid-majors. The efficiency gap is cavernous — this has blowout written all over it. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g1 | 1 | Michigan Wolverines vs UMBC/Howard | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 100.0% | Michigan Wolverines advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g2 | 1 | Georgia Bulldogs vs Saint Louis Billikens | Georgia Bulldogs (#8) | 52.0% | SEC-tested Georgia edges efficient Saint Louis in a coin-flip 8/9 battle. Georgia's elite offense (124.4 AdjOE) meets a Billikens D allowing just 45.0 eFG% — turnover battle decides it. 52% win probability for the Bulldogs. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g3 | 1 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Akron Zips | Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5) | 77.0% | Texas Tech enters with a massive efficiency edge and top-12 pedigree against an Akron squad that feasted on the MAC. The Red Raiders roll with a 77% win probability — SOS gap too large to ignore. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g4 | 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide vs Hofstra Pride | Alabama Crimson Tide (#4) | 85.0% | Alabama's #3-ranked offense (129.5 AdjOE) faces a Hofstra defense ranked #96. The Tide's elite tempo and SEC-tested roster should overwhelm the CAA champs. 85% win probability for the Crimson Tide. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g5 | 1 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Miami (OH)/SMU | Tennessee Volunteers (#6) | 100.0% | Tennessee Volunteers advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g6 | 1 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Wright State Raiders | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 89.0% | Virginia enters as a legitimate Final Four threat with a top-15 defense and battle-tested pedigree. 89% win probability. The Cavaliers' elite efficiency gap (26.7 net) dwarfs Wright State's 3.4 — this is survival of the fittest. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g7 | 1 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Santa Clara Broncos | Kentucky Wildcats (#7) | 58.0% | Kentucky's top-35 defense faces Santa Clara's top-15 offense. The Wildcats' SEC grind prepares them for tournament intensity. Kentucky's defensive edge and battle-testing overcome the Broncos' turnover-forcing attack. 58% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g8 | 1 | Iowa State Cyclones vs Tennessee State Tigers | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 96.0% | Iowa St.'s elite #6 defense vs a Tennessee St. offense ranked #187 spells trouble. The Cyclones force turnovers at a blistering 22.2% clip. 96% win probability for the Cyclones in a defensive clinic. |
| mm26-s-r1-g1 | 1 | Florida Gators vs Prairie View A&M/Lehigh | Florida Gators (#1) | 100.0% | Florida Gators advances |
| mm26-s-r1-g2 | 1 | Clemson Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes | Iowa Hawkeyes (#9) | 55.0% | Iowa Hawkeyes (55% win) bring elite offense (122.1 AdjOE) against Clemson's top-20 defense. Star guard Bennett Stirtz (20 PPG, 58% eFG) faces the ACC's stingiest unit. Both teams limp into March—this 8/9 battle comes down to offense vs defense in a rock fight. |
| mm26-s-r1-g3 | 1 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs McNeese Cowboys | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 83.0% | Vanderbilt enters as a legitimate title contender with a 83% win probability. Their elite SEC-tested offense (#11 nationally) faces a McNeese team that got blown out by 41 points in its only game against elite competition. |
| mm26-s-r1-g4 | 1 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Troy Trojans | Nebraska Cornhuskers (#4) | 87.0% | Nebraska's elite defense (#7 nationally) faces a Troy team that struggles on that end. The Cornhuskers force turnovers at a top-10 rate and should control this one comfortably. 87% win probability for Nebraska. |
| mm26-s-r1-g5 | 1 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs VCU Rams | North Carolina Tar Heels (#6) | 73.0% | North Carolina holds a 73% win probability. The Tar Heels' top-25 power rating and battle-tested schedule face a VCU squad that forces turnovers but hasn't beaten anyone of consequence. Size and efficiency favor UNC. |
| mm26-s-r1-g6 | 1 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn Quakers | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 89.0% | Illinois boasts the nation's #2 offense and top-25 defense against a Penn team that's barely above .500 with negative WAB. The efficiency gap is cavernous. 89% win probability for Illinois. |
| mm26-s-r1-g7 | 1 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Texas A&M Aggies | Saint Mary's Gaels (#7) | 60.0% | Elite Gaels defense (97.6 AdjDE #22) faces battle-tested Aggies. Saint Mary's rebounding dominance (37.4 ORB%) vs Texas A&M's turnover creation. Gaels control pace and survive. 60% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r1-g8 | 1 | Houston Cougars vs Idaho Vandals | Houston Cougars (#2) | 96.0% | Houston's #5 defense faces an Idaho team with a negative WAB (-8.9). The Cougars' elite ball pressure (21% TO rate) suffocates the Vandals' uptempo attack. Houston wins 96%. |
| mm26-w-r1-g1 | 1 | Arizona Wildcats vs LIU Sharks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 98.0% | Arizona enters as a legitimate title contender with elite efficiency on both ends. 98% win probability. The Wildcats' top-10 offense and top-5 defense face an LIU team that ranks outside the top 200 in both categories. |
| mm26-w-r1-g2 | 1 | Villanova Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Utah State Aggies (#9) | 56.0% | Utah State (56% win) brings the hotter offense and MWC tournament momentum into this 8-9 coin flip. The Aggies' elite shooting (56.9 eFG%) and turnover creation (20.6%) should neutralize Nova's defensive edge in a tight one. |
| mm26-w-r1-g3 | 1 | Wisconsin Badgers vs High Point Panthers | Wisconsin Badgers (#5) | 78.0% | Wisconsin enters with a top-10 offense and battle-tested resume. High Point's turnover-forcing defense is legit, but the Panthers haven't seen anything like this. 78% win probability for the Badgers. |
| mm26-w-r1-g4 | 1 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 87.0% | Arkansas brings a top-10 offense and SEC grit against a Hawaii squad that struggles to score (AdjOE #208). The Razorbacks' elite ball security neutralizes the 'Bows defense, paving the way for a comfortable win. Arkansas 87% win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g5 | 1 | BYU Cougars vs Texas/NC State | BYU Cougars (#6) | 100.0% | BYU Cougars advances |
| mm26-w-r1-g6 | 1 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Kennesaw State Owls | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 94.0% | 94% win probability. Gonzaga's #9 defense (#93.9 AdjDE) vs KSU's #199 defense is a massacre. Graham Ike (19.7 PPG, 60.2% eFG) feasts inside. The Zags' 30-3 record with wins over Alabama, Kentucky, and Saint Mary's speaks volumes. |
| mm26-w-r1-g7 | 1 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Missouri Tigers | Miami (FL) Hurricanes (#7) | 60.0% | Miami holds the efficiency edge on both ends and dominates the glass. The Hurricanes' 57% win probability stems from elite defensive rebounding and turnover control against a Missouri team that's dropped 4 of 5 heading into March. |
| mm26-w-r1-g8 | 1 | Purdue Boilermakers vs Queens University Royals | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 94.0% | Purdue's #1 ranked offense (132.5 AdjOE) faces a Queens defense ranked #317 nationally. The math is brutal for the Royals. 94% win probability for the Boilermakers. |
| mm26-e-r2-g1 | 2 | Duke Blue Devils vs Ohio State Buckeyes | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 78.0% | Duke's #1 defense (90.4 AdjDE) suffocates opponents to 46.4% eFG. Ohio State's offense is solid but their 101.5 AdjDE can't handle Cameron Boozer. Duke wins 78% of the time. |
| mm26-e-r2-g2 | 2 | St. John's Red Storm vs Kansas Jayhawks | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 60.0% | St. John's elite turnover creation (19.3%) clashes with a Kansas defense that generates zero pressure. The Red Storm's offensive rebounding advantage vs KU's poor backline rebounding tips a defensive battle. 60% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r2-g3 | 2 | Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 62.0% | Michigan State's elite defense (#16 nationally) and dominant rebounding (38.5% ORB rate) ground down Louisville's high-octane offense. Spartans advance with 62% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r2-g4 | 2 | UCLA Bruins vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 78.0% | UConn's elite defense (#11 AdjDE) clashes with UCLA's turnover-averse offense. The Huskies dominate the glass (+4.5 ORB% advantage) and efficiency margins. UCLA's shot-making keeps it close, but UConn's interior superiority prevails. 78% win. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g1 | 2 | Michigan Wolverines vs Georgia Bulldogs | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 87.0% | Michigan's #2-ranked defense meets Georgia's porous stop-unit in a mismatch of titans. The Wolverines own elite efficiency on both ends with championship-caliber SOS. 87% win probability for the maize and blue. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g2 | 2 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide | Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5) | 55.0% | Tempo clash defines this one: Alabama's #3 offense wants to run, but Texas Tech's #27 defense thrives in the grind. Red Raiders' balance (top-10 O, top-30 D) edges Bama's defensive vulnerabilities. 55% win probability for Texas Tech. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g3 | 2 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Cavaliers | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 56.0% | A coin-flip matchup between statistically identical teams. Virginia's elite shooting (55.1 eFG%) meets Tennessee's dominant offensive rebounding (45.0 ORB%). Cavaliers win 56% — better in big games. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g4 | 2 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 76.0% | Iowa State's elite defense (AdjDE #6) vs Kentucky's middling offense sets the tone. The Cyclones force turnovers on 22.2% of possessions — that's the dagger. 76% win probability for Iowa State. |
| mm26-s-r2-g1 | 2 | Florida Gators vs Iowa Hawkeyes | Florida Gators (#1) | 78.0% | Florida's elite defense (91.0 AdjDE, #3 nationally) faces an Iowa offense that shoots it well but can't get stops. The Gators dominate the glass and overwhelm in transition. 78% win probability for Florida. |
| mm26-s-r2-g2 | 2 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 58.0% | Elite offense meets elite defense in this 4/5 thriller. Vanderbilt's #11-ranked attack (126.0 AdjOE) faces Nebraska's #7 defense (93.4 AdjDE). The Commodores' ability to get to the line and crash the glass tips the scales. 58% win probability for Vanderbilt. |
| mm26-s-r2-g3 | 2 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs Illinois Fighting Illini | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 77.0% | Illinois brings the nation's #2 offense and elite rebounding into a matchup with a North Carolina team that's struggled against top competition. The Illini's 77% win probability reflects a massive efficiency gap that UNC's interior size can't close alone. |
| mm26-s-r2-g4 | 2 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 74.0% | Houston's elite defense (#5 AdjDE) clamps down on Saint Mary's in a rock fight. The Cougars force turnovers at a 21% clip while rarely coughing it up themselves. 74% win probability for Houston. |
| mm26-w-r2-g1 | 2 | Arizona Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 84.0% | Arizona's elite defense (91.1 AdjDE, #4) meets a Utah St offense that hasn't seen this level of resistance. The Wildcats dominate the glass (37.7% ORB) and own 19 quality wins. 84% win probability for the heavy favorite. |
| mm26-w-r2-g2 | 2 | Wisconsin Badgers vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 56.0% | Two top-7 offenses clash in a coin-flip thriller. Arkansas holds defensive edges (101.6 vs 102.2 AdjDE) and SEC tournament momentum, but Wisconsin's discipline keeps it tight. 56% win probability for Arkansas. |
| mm26-w-r2-g3 | 2 | BYU Cougars vs Gonzaga Bulldogs | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 68.0% | Gonzaga's elite defense (AdjDE #9) faces BYU's high-powered offense (AdjOE #16). The Bulldogs force turnovers on 20.4% of possessions — that havoc vs BYU's ball security decides it. 68% win for Gonzaga. |
| mm26-w-r2-g4 | 2 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 78.0% | Purdue owns the #1 offense in America (132.5 AdjOE) and just won the Big Ten Tournament. 78% win probability. Miami's turnover-forcing defense is their only path to pulling the upset. |
| mm26-e-r3-g1 | 3 | Duke Blue Devils vs St. John's Red Storm | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 77.0% | Duke's #1 defense meets St. John's mediocre offense — 77% win probability. The Blue Devils hold opponents to 46.4% eFG and boast the nation's top power rating. St. John's hasn't beaten an elite team all year. |
| mm26-e-r3-g2 | 3 | Michigan State Spartans vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 58.0% | Connecticut holds a 58% win probability in this battle of elite defenses. UConn's #11-ranked defense (94.6 AdjDE) faces a Michigan State team that dominates the glass — MSU's 38.5% offensive rebounding rate could be the X-factor. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g1 | 3 | Michigan Wolverines vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 76.0% | Michigan enters as a buzzsaw with the #2 defense in America and a 31-3 record against elite competition. Texas Tech's Top-10 offense meets its match — 76% win probability for the Wolverines. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g2 | 3 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 64.0% | Iowa State's elite defense (AdjDE #6) clashes with Virginia's methodical attack. The Cyclones' turnover-forcing prowess (22.2% Def TO%) could be the difference. 64% win for Iowa State. |
| mm26-s-r3-g1 | 3 | Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt Commodores | Florida Gators (#1) | 63.0% | SEC rubber match after splitting the season series. Florida's elite #3 defense meets Vanderbilt's #11 offense. Gators dominate the glass (42.6% ORB% vs 30.8%). Florida wins 63% — defense and rebounding edge overcomes Vandy's recent victory. |
| mm26-s-r3-g2 | 3 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 55.0% | Elite offense meets elite defense in a South Region blockbuster. Illinois boasts the #2 offense; Houston counters with the #5 defense and a havoc-wreaking 21% turnover rate. Houston holds the edge at 55% win probability in a grinder. |
| mm26-w-r3-g1 | 3 | Arizona Wildcats vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 76.0% | Arizona enters as a defensive juggernaut (91.1 AdjDE, #4 nationally) with elite rebounding. Arkansas can score but allows 51.5 eFG% on defense. 76% win probability for the Wildcats. |
| mm26-w-r3-g2 | 3 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 58.0% | Purdue's #1 ranked offense (132.5 AdjOE) meets Gonzaga's elite #9 defense in a Sweet 16 heavyweight clash. The Boilermakers' B10-tested pedigree and recent tournament surge give them the edge. 58% win for Purdue. |
| mm26-e-r4-g1 | 4 | Duke Blue Devils vs UConn Huskies | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 71.0% | The #1 overall defense meets its match. Duke's 90.4 AdjDE and 37.7% ORB% overwhelm UConn's foul-prone interior. Blue Devils win 71% — elite defense and glass dominance decide it. |
| mm26-mw-r4-g1 | 4 | Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa State Cyclones | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 67.0% | Michigan enters as a defensive juggernaut (#2 AdjDE) with the nation's top WAB (13.4), but Iowa State's #6 defense forces turnovers at a lethal 22.2% rate. The Wolverines are tested against elite competition—67% win probability for the 1-seed. |
| mm26-s-r4-g1 | 4 | Florida Gators vs Houston Cougars | Florida Gators (#1) | 58.0% | Elite defense vs elite defense, but Florida's 42.6% offensive rebounding rate against Houston's ball-pressure scheme decides it. Gators crash the glass, survive the turnover battle. 58% win probability for Florida in a rock fight. |
| mm26-w-r4-g1 | 4 | Arizona Wildcats vs Purdue Boilermakers | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 62.0% | Elite offense meets elite defense. Purdue boasts the nation's #1 offense, but Arizona's #4 defense and superior Barthag (0.9771) give the Wildcats a 62% win probability in this West Region heavyweight clash. |
| mm26-ff-g1 | 5 | Duke Blue Devils vs Arizona Wildcats | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 58.0% | Duke's #1 ranked defense faces its toughest test against Arizona's uptempo attack. The Blue Devils hold a 58% win probability—elite rim protection vs relentless transition sets the stage. Efficiency meets pace in a battle of heavyweights. |
| mm26-ff-g2 | 5 | Florida Gators vs Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 58.0% | Two elite defenses clash in a battle of heavyweights. Michigan's 58.0% eFG offense meets Florida's #3 ranked defense. Wolverines win 58% — shooting efficiency decides it. |
| mm26-championship | 6 | Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan Wolverines | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 61.0% | Duke's #1 defense clashes with Michigan's #4 offense. The Blue Devils won the Feb 21 matchup 68-63 and dominate the glass. Michigan's defense doesn't force turnovers (15.4%), letting Duke execute efficiently. Duke wins with 61% confidence. |