2026 National Championship
Qwen 3.5 Flash Bracket
Alibaba's latest flash model
Window: Tournament Start
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Predictions
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Amazon Nova MicroClaude CLIClaude SonnetCohere Command R7BDeepSeek R1DeepSeek V3DeepSeek V3.2Gemini 2.5 FlashGemini 2.5 Flash LiteGemini 2.5 ProGemini 3 FlashGemini 3.1 ProGemini ProGemma 3 12BGemma 3 27BGLM 5GPT-4oGrokGrok 3 MiniGrok 4 FastGrok 4.1 FastKimi K2Llama 3Mistral LargeMistral NemoNemotron 3 Super 120BQwen 3.5 FlashQwen Turbo
| Game | Round | Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mm26-e-r1-g1 | 1 | Duke Blue Devils vs Siena Saints | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 90.0% | Elite Duke defense meets #5 offense against Siena firepower. Duke leads nation in AdjDE and Barthag while controlling tempo. Cameron Boozer averages 22.5ppg/10.2rpg vs weak interior. Expect blowout. 90% win. |
| mm26-e-r1-g2 | 1 | Ohio State Buckeyes vs TCU Horned Frogs | Ohio State Buckeyes (#8) | 72.0% | Ohio St's elite offense (125.2 AdjOE) overwhelms TCU's solid defense. Thornton and Mobley deliver 36 PPG combo. TCU battles on glass but turnovers hurt. 72% win odds favor the Buckeyes in a high-scoring affair. |
| mm26-e-r1-g3 | 1 | St. John's Red Storm vs Northern Iowa Panthers | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 75.0% | St. John's elite efficiency overwhelms Northern Iowa's slower attack. Ejiofor's scoring punch meets a porous defense. 72% win probability based on SOS gap and rebounding edge. |
| mm26-e-r1-g4 | 1 | Kansas Jayhawks vs Cal Baptist Lancers | Kansas Jayhawks (#4) | 85.0% | Kansas's elite #10 defense (94.4 AdjDE) smother Cal Baptist's turnover-prone attack. Jayhawks shoot 51.6% eFG. 85% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r1-g5 | 1 | Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida Bulls | Louisville Cardinals (#6) | 74.0% | Louisville's elite efficiency (#23 AdjOE) overwhelms South Florida. Cardinals control tempo and shoot lights out. 74% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r1-g6 | 1 | Michigan State Spartans vs North Dakota State Bison | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 92.0% | Michigan St's elite adjOff efficiency crushes NDSU's mid-tier stats. 92% win probability. Spartans' balance overwhelms Sum league talent. 105-85 scoreline expected as B10 quality shines. |
| mm26-e-r1-g7 | 1 | UCLA Bruins vs UCF Knights | UCLA Bruins (#7) | 72.0% | UCLA's elite offense (124.7 AdjOE) overwhelms UCF's defense (105.7 AdjDE). Bruins dominate pace and ball security. Win probability: 72%. |
| mm26-e-r1-g8 | 1 | UConn Huskies vs Furman Paladins | UConn Huskies (#2) | 89.0% | UConn's elite defense and balanced attack overwhelm Furman's high-usage guard game. Huskies win 82-65. 89% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g1 | 1 | Michigan Wolverines vs UMBC/Howard | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 100.0% | Michigan Wolverines advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g2 | 1 | Georgia Bulldogs vs Saint Louis Billikens | Georgia Bulldogs (#8) | 74.0% | Georgia's elite offense (124.4 AdjOE) overwhelms SLU's shooting. 74% win prob. Georgia's ball security (14.2% TO) neutralizes the 9-seed's 59.8% eFG% advantage in this Midwest showdown. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g3 | 1 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Akron Zips | Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5) | 72.0% | Tech's #8 Offensive Efficiency crushes Akron's defense. 22-10 Red Raiders bring 0.9444 Barthag power against 27-5 MAC squad. Tech controls the glass and punishes perimeter. 72% win probability for the higher-rated team in this matchup. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g4 | 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide vs Hofstra Pride | Alabama Crimson Tide (#4) | 87.0% | Alabama's 129.5 AdjOE crushes Hofstra's 113.1. SEC firepower vs CAA defense. 85% win prob. Philon and Holloway feast on slower pace. Expect a 15-point blowout in Round 1 Midwest Region opener. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g5 | 1 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Miami (OH)/SMU | Tennessee Volunteers (#6) | 100.0% | Tennessee Volunteers advances |
| mm26-mw-r1-g6 | 1 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Wright State Raiders | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 88.0% | Virginia's elite defense crushes Wright State's porous offense. 88% win probability in this mismatch. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g7 | 1 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Santa Clara Broncos | Kentucky Wildcats (#7) | 61.0% | Kentucky's elite defense and free throw rate counter Santa Clara's offensive efficiency. Wildcats edge Broncos in a tight SEC vs WCC battle. Kentucky 61% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r1-g8 | 1 | Iowa State Cyclones vs Tennessee State Tigers | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 88.0% | Iowa State's elite defense (92.6 AdjDE) crushes Tennessee State's weak offense (107.8 AdjOE). Rank #6 vs #240 efficiency gap is too wide. Cyclones secure 88% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r1-g1 | 1 | Florida Gators vs Prairie View A&M/Lehigh | Florida Gators (#1) | 100.0% | Florida Gators advances |
| mm26-s-r1-g2 | 1 | Clemson Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes | Iowa Hawkeyes (#9) | 64.0% | Iowa's elite #29 offense (122.1 AdjOE) faces Clemson's #20 stingy defense (96.9 AdjDE). While Clemson has won 7 tight games to Iowa's one, Iowa's power rating holds the edge. Bet on the Hawkeyes to prevail in a high-tempo scoring battle. |
| mm26-s-r1-g3 | 1 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs McNeese Cowboys | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 78.0% | Vanderbilt's elite offense overwhelms Slnd defensive struggles. Battle-tested SEC squad edges McNeese 72% win chance. 76-64 forecast. |
| mm26-s-r1-g4 | 1 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Troy Trojans | Nebraska Cornhuskers (#4) | 85.0% | Nebraska's elite 93.4 AdjDE anchors a 26-6 team ranked #20 overall. They should contain Troy's volatile offense while dominating the half-court. 85% win chance. |
| mm26-s-r1-g5 | 1 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs VCU Rams | North Carolina Tar Heels (#6) | 72.0% | UNC's elite offense (121.5 AdjOE) edges VCU's hot momentum. Despite UNC's late slump, quality wins drive 72% win probability. 75-66 forecast. Defense decides. |
| mm26-s-r1-g6 | 1 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn Quakers | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 88.0% | Illinois boasts the #2 offense. With an 85% win probability, their elite shooting and rebounding overwhelm Penn's defense. High-powered efficiency meets mid-tier resistance in a commanding victory. |
| mm26-s-r1-g7 | 1 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Texas A&M Aggies | Saint Mary's Gaels (#7) | 68.0% | Saint Mary's vs Texas A&M. Gaels' elite defense vs Aggies' high tempo. 68% win share SMC. Murauskas dominates glass against Aggies. Smallest margin wins favor Saint Mary's 119-4 net eff edge. |
| mm26-s-r1-g8 | 1 | Houston Cougars vs Idaho Vandals | Houston Cougars (#2) | 93.0% | Houston's 91.8 AdjDE stifles Idaho's offense while 52.1% Off eFG% explodes. Cougars hold 93% win probability atop 0.972 Barthag. Expect a decisive 76-60 win. |
| mm26-w-r1-g1 | 1 | Arizona Wildcats vs LIU Sharks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 88.0% | Arizona's elite defense (#4 AdjDE) and offense (#9 AdjOE) dominate LIU. Wildcats control the glass and limit bad shots. Expect wire-to-wire control. Arizona holds a 72% win probability in this clash. |
| mm26-w-r1-g2 | 1 | Villanova Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Utah State Aggies (#9) | 62.0% | Utah State's elite offense (122.9 AdjOE) overwhelms Villanova's top defense. Aggies win 62% chance on superior shooting and tournament momentum. Collins' scoring bursts edge out Brennan's efficiency in tight West clash. |
| mm26-w-r1-g3 | 1 | Wisconsin Badgers vs High Point Panthers | Wisconsin Badgers (#5) | 88.0% | Wisconsin's #7 offense crushes High Point's #148 defense. Badgers control early. 85% win prob. Panthers lack firepower to match tempo. Mismatch decided in paint and efficiency. |
| mm26-w-r1-g4 | 1 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 92.0% | Arkansas (26-8) brings elite AdjOE 127.8 vs Hawaii's 106.8. Razorbacks protect ball (12.2% TO%) while Warriors cough it up (18.9%). 88% win for Arkansas. Efficiency gap too great to ignore. |
| mm26-w-r1-g5 | 1 | BYU Cougars vs Texas/NC State | BYU Cougars (#6) | 100.0% | BYU Cougars advances |
| mm26-w-r1-g6 | 1 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Kennesaw State Owls | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 92.0% | Gonzaga's elite defense (#9) stifles Kennesaw's #199 unit. With a 0.9447 Barthag vs 0.5244, the Bulldogs dominate the paint (Ike/Huff). Expect a blowout. 92% win prob for Gonzaga. |
| mm26-w-r1-g7 | 1 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Missouri Tigers | Miami (FL) Hurricanes (#7) | 72.0% | Miami (FL) Hurricanes: The Hurricanes bring elite efficiency and rebounding to overwhelm Missouri's turnover-prone attack. With a 72% win probability, Miami's 121.1 Adj OE outpaces the Tigers' sluggish finish. |
| mm26-w-r1-g8 | 1 | Purdue Boilermakers vs Queens University Royals | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 92.0% | Purdue's #1 offense crashes into Queens' bottom-tier defense. Expect 25-point dominance as Boilermakers control pace and glass. Win chance hits 90%. |
| mm26-e-r2-g1 | 2 | Duke Blue Devils vs Ohio State Buckeyes | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 85.0% | Duke's elite defense forces 18% turnovers vs Ohio St's 15.7%. Cameron Boozer dominates the paint. Duke controls tempo. 85% win prob. Blue Devils advance. |
| mm26-e-r2-g2 | 2 | St. John's Red Storm vs Kansas Jayhawks | St. John's Red Storm (#5) | 65.0% | St. John's elite defense and conference momentum face Kansas. Red Storm's offensive rebounding and foul-drawing abilities favor them. 65% win probability for St. John's as they control the glass to win a tight defensive battle determined by second chances. |
| mm26-e-r2-g3 | 2 | Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans | Michigan State Spartans (#3) | 68.0% | MSU's elite defense and rebounding dominate Louisville's offense. Spartans control tempo and win possession battles. Adjusted efficiency favors Michigan State. 68% win probability. |
| mm26-e-r2-g4 | 2 | UCLA Bruins vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 71.0% | UConn’s elite defense (94.6 DEff) shuts down UCLA’s offense. 29-5 Huskies’ WAB dominance trumps Bruins’ ball movement. Defensive grind favors UConn. 71% win. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g1 | 2 | Michigan Wolverines vs Georgia Bulldogs | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 94.0% | Michigan’s elite efficiency crushes Georgia’s offense. 92% win chance projected. Wolverines defense holds Bulldogs under 65. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g2 | 2 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide | Alabama Crimson Tide (#4) | 64.0% | Alabama's elite offense clashes with Tech's efficiency in a tempo war. The Crimson Tide's turnover discipline and pace exploit a vulnerable Tech defense, leaning a 64% win probability. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g3 | 2 | Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Cavaliers | Virginia Cavaliers (#3) | 67.0% | Virginia's sharp shooting and defense edge Tennessee's rebounding in a tight clash. Vols crash glass but Cavs hit from deep. 63% win for Virginia. |
| mm26-mw-r2-g4 | 2 | Kentucky Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 75.0% | Iowa St. defense (#6) vs Kentucky. Cyclones limit eFG% to 49.5% vs Kentucky's 53.0% offense. Better Barthag (#7) beats SEC squad. Kentucky guards struggle against Iowa St's discipline. Expect controlled game. 68% win for Iowa St. |
| mm26-s-r2-g1 | 2 | Florida Gators vs Iowa Hawkeyes | Florida Gators (#1) | 85.0% | Florida's elite defense stifles Iowa's guard-centric attack. Gators rank #3 defensively vs Hawkeyes #34. Elite efficiency guarantees victory. 85% win chance. |
| mm26-s-r2-g2 | 2 | Vanderbilt Commodores vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | Vanderbilt Commodores (#5) | 72.0% | Vanderbilt’s elite offense (126.0) clashes with Nebraska’s stingy D (93.4). The Commodores’ #11 AdjOE trumps Nebraska’s #7 defense. 72% win for Vanderbilt. |
| mm26-s-r2-g3 | 2 | North Carolina Tar Heels vs Illinois Fighting Illini | Illinois Fighting Illini (#3) | 78.0% | Illinois's #2 offense (131.9 OE) overwhelms UNC's defense. The Illini control the glass (39% ORB) for a decisive victory with 78% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r2-g4 | 2 | Saint Mary's Gaels vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 78.0% | Houston’s elite defense (91.8 AdjDE) and superior SOS (0.724) overwhelm Saint Mary’s balanced attack. Cougars win 78% probability. Expect tight first half, Houston pulls away. |
| mm26-w-r2-g1 | 2 | Arizona Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 88.0% | Arizona's elite defense (91.1 Adj) crushes Utah's middle-tier offense. Wildcats win 86-69, control boards and force turnovers. 88% win prob. |
| mm26-w-r2-g2 | 2 | Wisconsin Badgers vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arkansas Razorbacks (#4) | 62.0% | Arkansas outperforms Wisconsin with better offensive efficiency and pace. Razorbacks shoot better and played a tougher schedule. Wisconsin struggles with defense rank. Arkansas takes it in a tight battle. 62% win prob. |
| mm26-w-r2-g3 | 2 | BYU Cougars vs Gonzaga Bulldogs | Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3) | 74.0% | Gonzaga's #9 defense stifles BYU's offense. The 30-3 Bulldogs' Barthag dominance projects a 72% win probability for the West Region favorite. |
| mm26-w-r2-g4 | 2 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 74.0% | Purdue's #1 Offense overwhelms Miami's defense in West Region clash. Efficiency gap is too high for Canes to overcome despite Reneau's production. 74% win. |
| mm26-e-r3-g1 | 3 | Duke Blue Devils vs St. John's Red Storm | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 81.0% | Duke's elite stingy defense will stifle St. John's offense in the First Round. 81% win probability predicts a 76-64 blowout as Cameron Boozer scores 22 PPG. |
| mm26-e-r3-g2 | 3 | Michigan State Spartans vs UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies (#2) | 64.0% | UConn (124.2 AdjOE) outshines Michigan St (96.0 AdjDE). Huskies win probability sits at 64%. Fears Jr struggles against UConn’s defense, while Reed Jr dominates the paint. MSU’s turnover margin becomes the tiebreaker. |
| mm26-mw-r3-g1 | 3 | Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson Tide | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 74.0% | Michigan's elite defense crushes Alabama's high-octane offense. Wolverines win 76-68. Win prob: 74% |
| mm26-mw-r3-g2 | 3 | Virginia Cavaliers vs Iowa State Cyclones | Iowa State Cyclones (#2) | 68.0% | Iowa State dominates the metrics with a #7 Barthag and #6 defense. Virginia holds opponents to 45.5 eFG%, but ISU's 56.4 offense cracks it better. Expect ISU to control pace. 68% Win. |
| mm26-s-r3-g1 | 3 | Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt Commodores | Florida Gators (#1) | 75.0% | Florida's elite D (#3, 91.0) stifles offenses, while Vandy's turnover margin favors the Commodores. Gators dominate boards (42.6% Off). 72% win prob. |
| mm26-s-r3-g2 | 3 | Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston Cougars | Houston Cougars (#2) | 65.0% | Houston's elite #5 defense meets Illinois' #2 offense in a showdown. Cougars hold edge in tournament wins and defensive efficiency. Expect a gritty, low-scoring affair where turnovers decide. 65% win for Houston. |
| mm26-w-r3-g1 | 3 | Arizona Wildcats vs Arkansas Razorbacks | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 88.0% | Arizona's elite D stifles high-powered offenses. They won 32 of 34 games, relying on rim protection rather than just volume. Razorbacks struggle against top-tier defenses like this. 88% win prob for the Wildcats. |
| mm26-w-r3-g2 | 3 | Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue Boilermakers | Purdue Boilermakers (#2) | 75.0% | Purdue’s #1 offense (132.5 AdjOE) overcomes Gonzaga’s #9 defense. Superior SOS and Barthag rating tilt this West Region clash. 76-72 Purdue win. |
| mm26-e-r4-g1 | 4 | Duke Blue Devils vs UConn Huskies | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 73.0% | Duke's elite #1 defense and high-powered offense dominate statistically over UConn. Blue Devils hold 73% win probability in this East Region showdown. Expect a technical efficiency clash where shooting and turnovers decide the winner. |
| mm26-mw-r4-g1 | 4 | Michigan Wolverines vs Iowa State Cyclones | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 72.0% | Michigan's elite efficiency (128.5 OE, 90.8 DE) dominates the matchup against Iowa St. The Wolverines control tempo and shots. 72% win probability. |
| mm26-s-r4-g1 | 4 | Florida Gators vs Houston Cougars | Florida Gators (#1) | 75.0% | Florida's elite defense and rebounding edge Houston's offense. Gators win tempo battle. 75% win. |
| mm26-w-r4-g1 | 4 | Arizona Wildcats vs Purdue Boilermakers | Arizona Wildcats (#1) | 73.0% | Elite defense vs. high-powered offense. Arizona (32-2) brings stingy 91.1 AdjDE to meet Purdue's #1 132.5 AdjOE. Wildcats' 23-game win streak contrasts Purdue's 8 losses. 73% win probability favors Arizona controlling the flow. |
| mm26-ff-g1 | 5 | Duke Blue Devils vs Arizona Wildcats | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 65.0% | Duke (128.1 OE) faces Arizona (70.1 Tempo) in top-tier clash. Duke’s #1 defense (90.4) gives edge over Arizona’s FTR (44.1). Duke wins 68% of simulations. |
| mm26-ff-g2 | 5 | Florida Gators vs Michigan Wolverines | Michigan Wolverines (#1) | 78.0% | Michigan's elite efficiency (128.5 AdjOE) overwhelms Florida's defense. Superior schedule strength and 31-3 clip edge Gators. 78% win prob. |
| mm26-championship | 6 | Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan Wolverines | Duke Blue Devils (#1) | 75.0% | Duke's elite defense stifles Michigan's pace. 65% win probability for Blue Devils. H2H victor takes East title. #1 Defense beats Top SOS. |