2026 National Championship

Seed 1.6 Flash Bracket

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Window: Tournament Start

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Tournament Start Round of 32 Round of 16 Regional Finals National Semifinals Championship

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Game	Round	Matchup	Pick	Confidence	Rationale
mm26-e-r1-g1	1	Duke Blue Devils vs Siena Saints	Duke Blue Devils (#1)	95.0%	Duke's elite defense (1st) and efficient offense (5th) overwhelm Siena. 92% win probability—Siena has no answer for Duke's two-way dominance.
mm26-e-r1-g2	1	Ohio State Buckeyes vs TCU Horned Frogs	Ohio State Buckeyes (#8)	65.0%	Ohio St's high-octane offense (125.2 AdjOE) vs TCU's stingy defense (99.6 AdjDE). Buckeyes edge out 58% chance at the win.
mm26-e-r1-g3	1	St. John's Red Storm vs Northern Iowa Panthers	St. John's Red Storm (#5)	90.0%	St. John's dominant offense (119.4 AdjOE) vs Northern Iowa's solid D (98.5 AdjDE) — Red Storm 78% win
mm26-e-r1-g4	1	Kansas Jayhawks vs Cal Baptist Lancers	Kansas Jayhawks (#4)	85.0%	78% win - Kansas' Top 10 D (94.4) stifles Cal Baptist's 107.8 AdjO; slow pace favors Jayhawks.
mm26-e-r1-g5	1	Louisville Cardinals vs South Florida Bulls	Louisville Cardinals (#6)	70.0%	Louisville's 124.0 AdjOE (23rd) and 98.1 AdjDE (24th) outclass South Florida's 117.2/102.6; Cardinals have a 68% shot at advancing.
mm26-e-r1-g6	1	Michigan State Spartans vs North Dakota State Bison	Michigan State Spartans (#3)	90.0%	Michigan St. (25-7) dominates on both ends (122.9 AdjOE, 96.0 AdjDE) vs North Dakota St. (24-7) (111.4 AdjOE, 106.0 AdjDE). 88% win.
mm26-e-r1-g7	1	UCLA Bruins vs UCF Knights	UCLA Bruins (#7)	72.0%	UCLA's elite offense (124.7) and solid defense (101.7) outclass UCF's high tempo (69.1) and offense (120.0). Bruins 70% win.
mm26-e-r1-g8	1	UConn Huskies vs Furman Paladins	UConn Huskies (#2)	85.0%	UConn's 124.2 AdjOE and 94.6 AdjDE vs. Furman's 106.8 AdjOE—Huskies 85% win.
mm26-mw-r1-g1	1	Michigan Wolverines vs UMBC/Howard	Michigan Wolverines (#1)	100.0%	Michigan Wolverines advances
mm26-mw-r1-g2	1	Georgia Bulldogs vs Saint Louis Billikens	Georgia Bulldogs (#8)	65.0%	Georgia's top-20 offense (124.4 AdjOE) vs SLU's solid defense (102.3) – 58% chance Bulldogs advance.
mm26-mw-r1-g3	1	Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Akron Zips	Texas Tech Red Raiders (#5)	68.0%	Texas Tech's 126.3 AdjOE vs Akron's 70.4 tempo – Zips' 10-game win streak adds chaos, but Red Raiders' top-27 D edges it. 68% win.
mm26-mw-r1-g4	1	Alabama Crimson Tide vs Hofstra Pride	Alabama Crimson Tide (#4)	85.0%	Alabama's top-3 offense vs Hofstra's slow pace: Tide win 78-68, 85% chance. Tide's offensive firepower too much for Pride.
mm26-mw-r1-g5	1	Tennessee Volunteers vs Miami (OH)/SMU	Tennessee Volunteers (#6)	100.0%	Tennessee Volunteers advances
mm26-mw-r1-g6	1	Virginia Cavaliers vs Wright State Raiders	Virginia Cavaliers (#3)	85.0%	78% win. Third-seed Virginia's efficient D (95.6) and balanced O (121.7) vs 14-seed Wright St's average (112.4 O, 109.0 D).
mm26-mw-r1-g7	1	Kentucky Wildcats vs Santa Clara Broncos	Kentucky Wildcats (#7)	65.0%	Kentucky (39th AdjO) vs Santa Clara (15th AdjO); Wildcats (32nd AdjD) hold 100. Defensive edge could decide—58% win.
mm26-mw-r1-g8	1	Iowa State Cyclones vs Tennessee State Tigers	Iowa State Cyclones (#2)	90.0%	82% win. 2-seed Iowa St. (123.8 AdjOE, 92.6 AdjDE) dominates 15-seed Tennessee St. (107.8 AdjOE, 112.0 AdjDE) with efficiency and defense.
mm26-s-r1-g1	1	Florida Gators vs Prairie View A&M/Lehigh	Florida Gators (#1)	100.0%	Florida Gators advances
mm26-s-r1-g2	1	Clemson Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes	Clemson Tigers (#8)	72.0%	Clemson's top-20 defense vs. Iowa's top-30 offense; Tigers win 67-64. 70% chance.
mm26-s-r1-g3	1	Vanderbilt Commodores vs McNeese Cowboys	Vanderbilt Commodores (#5)	82.0%	Vanderbilt's 126.0 AdjOE (top 11) vs McNeese's 102.1 AdjDE (top 56) – 75% win for Commodores. High-octane offense vs solid defense.
mm26-s-r1-g4	1	Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Troy Trojans	Nebraska Cornhuskers (#4)	82.0%	Nebraska's elite defense (93.4 AdjDE) vs Troy's struggling offense (110.7 AdjOE) sets up an 82% win for the Cornhuskers.
mm26-s-r1-g5	1	North Carolina Tar Heels vs VCU Rams	North Carolina Tar Heels (#6)	75.0%	UNC (24-8) has top-33 O/D efficiency; VCU (27-7) has A10 firepower but weak D. Rams' momentum vs Tar Heels' consistency. Likely UNC wins 75-72.
mm26-s-r1-g6	1	Illinois Fighting Illini vs Penn Quakers	Illinois Fighting Illini (#3)	82.0%	Illinois (2nd AdjOE) vs Penn (209th AdjOE); 78% win probability as Illini's top offense overwhelms Penn's defense.
mm26-s-r1-g7	1	Saint Mary's Gaels vs Texas A&M Aggies	Saint Mary's Gaels (#7)	70.0%	Saint Mary's (119.4 AdjOE, 97.6 AdjDE) edges Texas A&M (119.9 AdjOE, 101.4 AdjDE) with better defense. Likely 70% win.
mm26-s-r1-g8	1	Houston Cougars vs Idaho Vandals	Houston Cougars (#2)	95.0%	Houston's elite defense (91.8 AdjDE) and 14th AdjOE (125.1) overwhelming Idaho's 108.8 AdjOE; 78% win.
mm26-w-r1-g1	1	Arizona Wildcats vs LIU Sharks	Arizona Wildcats (#1)	92.0%	Arizona's 126.3 AdjOE and 91.1 DefEff crush LIU's 103.6 OffEff and 109.7 DefEff. 93% win.
mm26-w-r1-g2	1	Villanova Wildcats vs Utah State Aggies	Villanova Wildcats (#8)	75.0%	Utah St's 122.9 AdjOE vs Villanova's 100.4 AdjDE – 65% Villanova win. Slow pace vs fast tempo, Nova's D key.
mm26-w-r1-g3	1	Wisconsin Badgers vs High Point Panthers	Wisconsin Badgers (#5)	75.0%	78% win for Wisconsin (No.7 OE vs No.148 D) – High Point hot streak can't outmatch Badgers' offense
mm26-w-r1-g4	1	Arkansas Razorbacks vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	Arkansas Razorbacks (#4)	85.0%	Arkansas (127.8 adj offense) overwhelms Hawaii (106.8 adj offense) with high-powered attack; 78% win probability.
mm26-w-r1-g5	1	BYU Cougars vs Texas/NC State	BYU Cougars (#6)	100.0%	BYU Cougars advances
mm26-w-r1-g6	1	Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Kennesaw State Owls	Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3)	92.0%	Gonzaga's dominant defense (93.9 AdjDE) vs Kennesaw St's struggling offense (110.7 AdjOE) favors Zags, ~89% win.
mm26-w-r1-g7	1	Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Missouri Tigers	Miami (FL) Hurricanes (#7)	75.0%	Miami (FL) (25-8) edges Missouri (20-12) 68-65 with better efficiency; Canes' offense overwhelms Tigers' defense. 72% win.
mm26-w-r1-g8	1	Purdue Boilermakers vs Queens University Royals	Purdue Boilermakers (#2)	90.0%	Purdue's elite offense (132.5 AdjOE) vs Queens' porous D (117.1 AdjDE) – 95% chance Boilermakers advance.
mm26-e-r2-g1	2	Duke Blue Devils vs Ohio State Buckeyes	Duke Blue Devils (#1)	85.0%	Duke's #1 defense and #5 offense vs Ohio State's solid offense; Blue Devils 78% win probability.
mm26-e-r2-g2	2	St. John's Red Storm vs Kansas Jayhawks	St. John's Red Storm (#5)	75.0%	St. John's (adjDE 94.8) stifles offense, outpaces Kansas, 68% win.
mm26-e-r2-g3	2	Louisville Cardinals vs Michigan State Spartans	Michigan State Spartans (#3)	70.0%	Louisville's 124.0 AdjOE vs Michigan St's 96.0 AdjDE: 52% win – Spartans' defense edges Cards' offense in tight East clash.
mm26-e-r2-g4	2	UCLA Bruins vs UConn Huskies	UConn Huskies (#2)	78.0%	UConn's 11th-ranked D vs UCLA's 17th-ranked O. Huskies (29-5, 18-win streak) vs Bruins (23-11, 3 close wins). 78% UConn win.
mm26-mw-r2-g1	2	Michigan Wolverines vs Georgia Bulldogs	Michigan Wolverines (#1)	85.0%	1-seed Michigan (128.5 ORtg, 90.8 DRtg) crushes 8-seed Georgia (124.4 ORtg, 104.8 DRtg) 78% win chance.
mm26-mw-r2-g2	2	Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide	Alabama Crimson Tide (#4)	75.0%	Alabama's electric offense (129.5 AdjOE) vs Texas Tech's stingy D (98.8 AdjDE). Bama 68% win—explosive attack tests TTU's pace.
mm26-mw-r2-g3	2	Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Cavaliers	Virginia Cavaliers (#3)	70.0%	Virginia (31st AdjOE) edges Tennessee (32nd AdjOE) with similar DefEff (95.6). 55% chance
mm26-mw-r2-g4	2	Kentucky Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones	Iowa State Cyclones (#2)	85.0%	Iowa State's elite D (92.6 AdjDE) and efficient O (123.8 AdjOE) edge Kentucky's 120.0 AdjO; 78% win for Cyclones.
mm26-s-r2-g1	2	Florida Gators vs Clemson Tigers	Florida Gators (#1)	85.0%	Florida's elite D (91.0 adjDE) vs Clemson's 78th-ranked offense; Gators 77% to advance.
mm26-s-r2-g2	2	Vanderbilt Commodores vs Nebraska Cornhuskers	Vanderbilt Commodores (#5)	70.0%	Vanderbilt's 126.0 AdjOE (Top 11) vs Nebraska's 93.4 AdjDE (Top 7) – 70% Vandy win.
mm26-s-r2-g3	2	North Carolina Tar Heels vs Illinois Fighting Illini	Illinois Fighting Illini (#3)	70.0%	Illinois' top-2 offense (131.9 AdjOE) vs UNC's top-33 D (100.0 AdjDE) — 68% win for Illinois.
mm26-s-r2-g4	2	Saint Mary's Gaels vs Houston Cougars	Houston Cougars (#2)	78.0%	Houston's 125.1 AdjOE vs Saint Mary's 97.6 DefEff: Can Gaels slow the Cougars? 68% win for Houston.
mm26-w-r2-g1	2	Arizona Wildcats vs Villanova Wildcats	Arizona Wildcats (#1)	85.0%	Arizona's 126.3 AdjOE and 91.1 AdjDE vs Villanova's 119.6 AdjOE and 100.4 AdjDE – 85% win for the Wildcats.
mm26-w-r2-g2	2	Wisconsin Badgers vs Arkansas Razorbacks	Arkansas Razorbacks (#4)	75.0%	Top 7 offenses collide; Arkansas (127.8 AdjOE) edges Wisconsin (127.6) with higher tempo (71.1 vs 68.9). 57% win.
mm26-w-r2-g3	2	BYU Cougars vs Gonzaga Bulldogs	Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3)	85.0%	Gonzaga's dominant defense (93.9 AdjDE) vs BYU's solid offense (124.8 AdjOE) – Zags 78% win here.
mm26-w-r2-g4	2	Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Purdue Boilermakers	Purdue Boilermakers (#2)	85.0%	Purdue's 132.5 AdjOE vs. Miami's 101.4 AdjDE; 75% Boilermakers win.
mm26-e-r3-g1	3	Duke Blue Devils vs St. John's Red Storm	Duke Blue Devils (#1)	85.0%	Duke's elite defense (90.4 AdjDE) and potent offense (128.1 AdjOE) overwhelm St. John's; 88% win chance.
mm26-e-r3-g2	3	Michigan State Spartans vs UConn Huskies	UConn Huskies (#2)	85.0%	UConn's 124.2 AdjOE vs MSU's 96.0 AdjDE. Huskies' 18-game win streak vs Spartans' 8-game peak. 78% win chance.
mm26-mw-r3-g1	3	Michigan Wolverines vs Alabama Crimson Tide	Michigan Wolverines (#1)	85.0%	Michigan's top-2 D vs Alabama's top-3 O: The 1-seed's suffocating D faces the SEC's highest-octane attack. 74% win.
mm26-mw-r3-g2	3	Virginia Cavaliers vs Iowa State Cyclones	Virginia Cavaliers (#3)	68.0%	Virginia's stingy D (95.6) vs Iowa St's high O (123.8); Cyclones 57% to advance with tempo edge.
mm26-s-r3-g1	3	Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt Commodores	Florida Gators (#1)	78.0%	Florida's top-3 D (91.0 AdjDE) vs Vandy's top-11 O (126.0 AdjOE). Florida's defense edges Vandy's offense; 72% win.
mm26-s-r3-g2	3	Illinois Fighting Illini vs Houston Cougars	Illinois Fighting Illini (#3)	62.0%	Illinois' 2nd-ranked offense vs Houston's 5th-ranked defense. Houston's D holds, but Illinois' O pulls ahead late. 62% win.
mm26-w-r3-g1	3	Arizona Wildcats vs Arkansas Razorbacks	Arizona Wildcats (#1)	85.0%	Arizona's 126.3 ORtg & 91.1 DRtg overwhelm Arkansas' 127.8 ORtg & 101.6 DRtg – 82% win.
mm26-w-r3-g2	3	Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue Boilermakers	Gonzaga Bulldogs (#3)	62.0%	Gonzaga's dominant D (93.9) vs Purdue's top O (132.5). Zags edge 58% with better D and recent momentum.
mm26-e-r4-g1	4	Duke Blue Devils vs UConn Huskies	Duke Blue Devils (#1)	85.0%	Duke's Elite D (90.4 AdjDE) vs UConn's solid O (124.2 AdjOE). Duke 78% win.
mm26-mw-r4-g1	4	Michigan Wolverines vs Virginia Cavaliers	Michigan Wolverines (#1)	85.0%	Michigan (31-3) has top-4 offense and top-2 defense; 82% win vs Virginia. Dominant efficiency overwhelms Cavaliers.
mm26-s-r4-g1	4	Florida Gators vs Illinois Fighting Illini	Florida Gators (#1)	78.0%	Florida's stingy D (91.0 AdjDE) vs Illinois' high-octane O (131.9 AdjOE) – Gators 75% win chance.
mm26-w-r4-g1	4	Arizona Wildcats vs Gonzaga Bulldogs	Arizona Wildcats (#1)	85.0%	Arizona's top-5 defense (91.1 AdjDE) vs Gonzaga's 37th-ranked offense (120.2 AdjOE). Cats are 32-2; Zags 30-3. 85% win.
mm26-ff-g1	5	Duke Blue Devils vs Arizona Wildcats	Duke Blue Devils (#1)	75.0%	Duke's 1st-ranked D (90.4 AdjDE) vs Arizona's top-10 O (126.3 AdjOE) — Blue Devils 68% win; stingy D slows Wildcats' pace.
mm26-ff-g2	5	Florida Gators vs Michigan Wolverines	Michigan Wolverines (#1)	70.0%	Florida (126.1 ORtg, 91.0 DRtg) vs Michigan (128.5 ORtg, 90.8 DRtg) – two elite defenses clash, Michigan's higher scoring edge gives them a 68% win.
mm26-championship	6	Duke Blue Devils vs Michigan Wolverines	Duke Blue Devils (#1)	72.0%	Duke's top D (90.4) vs Michigan's 4th O (128.5); Duke edges 61-58 (70% win)